DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is trough in the North-Central that is pushing a ridge out of the continent for the weekend as it move east. Another trough will drop into the West over the weekend and move east across the U.S. next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A ridge will develop behind the trough in the West later next week and be a relatively stable pattern for the remainder of the month. Disturbances will move over the top of the ridge and into the eastern trough, an active pattern, but usually with limited precipitation and milder temperatures.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will move into the Central Plains early next week and move east with widespread showers for much of the Corn Belt. Additional disturbances may continue pockets and periods of showers for the middle of the country for the remainder of the month. Temperatures will be warmer in the West and milder east of the Rockies.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...109 AT FAITH RANCH, TX

LOW THU...16 AT MANILA, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...BISMARCK, ND 1.45 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is trough in the North-Central that is pushing a ridge out of the continent for the weekend as it move east. Another trough will drop into the West over the weekend and move east across the U.S. next week. A ridge will develop behind it in the West later next week and be a relatively stable pattern for the remainder of the month. Disturbances will move over the top of the ridge and into the eastern trough, an active pattern, but usually with limited precipitation and milder temperatures.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will move into the Central Plains early next week and move east with widespread showers for much of the Corn Belt. Additional disturbances may continue pockets and periods of showers for the middle of the country for the remainder of the month. Temperatures will be warmer in the West and milder east of the Rockies.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A large system brought heavy rainfall over the last couple of days, with showers waning on Friday across the Dakotas. The heavy rain was certainly needed after the recent hot and dry conditions had sapped soil moisture, but allowed fantastic planting conditions. However, colder temperatures moving into the region will continue through next week, and may cause some patchy frost in some areas. There will be more chances for rain that follow this weekend and next week as well.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A larger system moving across the Northern Plains brought some heavy thunderstorms to parts of Nebraska over the last couple of days, which was sorely needed, but did not cover the whole state. A better system should move through Sunday through Tuesday with a much better chance at more widespread showers across the region, which would include Nebraska again. Southwestern areas have not minded a break in the rainfall, but could start to dry out if next week's system misses as forecast.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system moving through the region brought widespread showers and thunderstorms across the north on Thursday. It should produce another round of strong to severe thunderstorms for the Ohio Valley on Friday into Saturday. Another system will roll through early-mid next week with more widespread rainfall potential. Temperatures are falling across the region and will be on the cool side for much of the remainder of the month.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): A front will settle into the area on Friday that should bring showers through the weekend as well as some severe weather. Breaks have not been very long between showers, which has left the region very wet and is likely causing some issues, including flooding on the Lower Mississippi River that has been very slow to fall. Several disturbances moving through next week could bring additional showers, but an overall drying trend is expected next week.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): A system is wrapping up in the Northern Plains, which has brought some heavy rain to the east over the last couple of days. That ends on Friday. Temperatures are trending colder and frosts may return by the weekend in some areas. The weather pattern looks to stay active next week with multiple chances for scattered showers as well. Western Saskatchewan has been missing out on a lot of the precipitation and could use some more. It will have better chances next week. The recent and forecast rain could slow down the planting progress, which is already ahead of schedule, but is helpful to build some moisture in for the newly planted crops.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): With the wet season over, Brazil relies on fronts coming up from Argentina to supply southern areas with some rainfall, which would be favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Corn will largely draw upon built up soil moisture from the wet season to fill kernels. A front will move into southern areas early next week with some showers.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Good harvest conditions have been in place for a while now for corn and soybeans, as well as early planting for winter wheat. A complicated front will waffle over the country through the weekend and bring scattered showers. More showers are possible next week, which would be helpful for winter wheat establishment.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A low in the Atlantic continues showers across Spain on Thursday and has been beneficial for western areas this week. A system is dropping showers through eastern areas and continues them into next week. Another low or two could move through southern portions of the continent next week with scattered showers. Much of northwestern Europe is now being left between systems and fronts and is trending drier and could use some rain. Chances may increase for needed rain toward the end of the month.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Bands of showers continue to move through the region as the weather pattern tries to reverse the drought in the region. It is a slow process, however. Though some areas have been a little left out, the pattern has been much more favorable for getting some needed precipitation into dry areas. It is also coming with colder air, which may produce patchy frost in some areas across the north and west and slow growth. This pattern should last through next week as well.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Despite some streaky showers in the east through Friday, the forecast continues to call for below-normal rainfall for most of the wheat belt, which will continue to be stressful for wheat and canola establishment.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Despite some recent rain, drier conditions in central portions of China are stressing wheat and canola that are in reproductive to filling stages. It may also stress some corn and soybean areas that have just been planted as well. A couple of fronts will come through over the next two weeks, but with limited precipitation. Northern areas, largely corn and soybean areas, are in better shape. But they will be on a much cooler streak into next week. Frosts are generally not forecast, but could be possible in some locations.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers north. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers Friday, mostly north. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, below normal north and above normal south Saturday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures above normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, near normal Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures below normal Wednesday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers north and southeast. Temperatures below normal west and above normal east.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers southeast Friday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal north and near to above normal south through Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Scattered showers south Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

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