Canadian Prairies Weather Outlook

Producers have had a really good start to seeding this year. It is early, but progress so far has been rather quick. Crop reports from both Manitoba and Saskatchewan this week showcase a quicker-than-normal pace in both provinces. Manitoba sits at 8% complete as of May 6, while Saskatchewan is at 18% complete as of May 5. Both are ahead of their respective five-year averages of 6% and 10%. Alberta's crop report will come out after this writing but is likely to showcase an above-normal seeding pace as well. Next week's reports are likely to continue to show the quick seeding pace. This puts most of the region in a good position to complete on time. That is, as long as the weather cooperates.

So far, it has. Very little precipitation fell during the last two weeks, and the weather has been warm, allowing producers to get out and get a lot of fieldwork done with little atmospheric interruption. Temperatures may even reach above 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit) on a couple of days this weekend into early next week.

However, the weather pattern is going to change a bit in the near future. An upper-level high-pressure ridge has kept the region warm and relatively dry, but it will be moving off to the east starting on May 11. An overall trough will move in to replace it, bringing with it multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms during the following couple of weeks.

Showers will come in pulses and clusters though, not sweep widely across the region. Some areas will be hit by a storm while others stay dry, only to get wet by the next one while other areas stay dry. So, most areas will still have good windows between storm systems to get additional work done.

We are likely to see some boosts in soil moisture though. And that would be almost ideal. After getting seed into the ground, a nice rain or two afterward would certainly be welcome for uniform germination and good early growth. However, this pattern also leads to irregular rainfall amounts and coverage. We might start to get more concerned about soil moisture in some areas, perhaps in those that had great soil moisture leading up to this pattern change.

The other factor this pattern change induces is a return of some cooler air and potential frosts. Frosts are common through the month of May and this type of pattern certainly allows that to happen. Although usually not damaging for most canola, wheat, and other grassy varieties of crops in spring, there could be some leaf damage that plants would have to recover from when temperatures finally increase in June. Frosts are not expected to be widespread or especially hard for long periods of time, which would also lessen the impact. But models can still change, so it is best to monitor the forecast going forward.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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