Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Daily rain chances across the U.S. this week are causing planting delays but soil moisture improvements, and wetter conditions in Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

WET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR MIDWEST

A stalled front and system moving through have brought more rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the Midwest, including some heavy rain across Missouri and into parts of Illinois, Iowa, and Wisconsin as well. Light to moderate rain has fallen elsewhere, building soil moisture but limiting opportunities for planting. Some southern areas are still too wet as well. Multiple systems and fronts will move through the region to close out April and start May in a busy overall pattern.

NEAR-DAILY RAIN IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A stalled front made for training thunderstorms from central Texas into Missouri, where heavy rainfall and severe storms occurred over the weekend. Limited areas of the southwestern Plains received precipitation, but other areas stayed unfavorably dry. That would be concerning, but multiple fronts and systems are forecast to move through the region going into early May, which may bring some of these drier areas some needed rainfall. If they get missed too often, winter wheat conditions will continue to fall. The multiple rounds may also limit spring planting in some areas as well.

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Some limited showers moved through the Northern Plains over the weekend, but most areas remained dry. A system will move through on Monday with scattered showers and another should move through later in the week. The rainfall amounts will not be enough to erase the drought, but will maintain overall decent topsoil moisture for most of the region. Some cooler temperatures will be in place most of the week, but nothing overly cold. Soil temperatures should be increasing regardless, allowing for some more planting to get done in areas that aren't so chilly or wet.

FRONT STUCK IN THE DELTA

A front moved into the Delta Sunday night with scattered showers. The front will get stuck in the region for most of the week, bringing periods of showers through at least Friday. Some areas remain too wet for much planting and the rain moving through this week will not be helpful either. The Mississippi River remains in flood stage along most of the path through the region. The rainfall this week will not be helpful, though water levels are forecast to drop later this week.

WET SEASON EXTENSION IN BRAZIL

Scattered showers have been moving through much of central Brazil over the last week, favorable for maintaining soil moisture for safrinha corn in most areas. Showers should be limited early this week, but should pick up in intensity and coverage as a front goes by late week. Another should go through late this weekend into next week, extending the wet season while corn pollinates and begins the fill period. After a scare of dry conditions for April, much of the region has received near or above normal rainfall, favorable for the corn.

LIMITED RAIN FOR ARGENTINA

Limited showers went through southern Argentina over the weekend, but most areas have stayed dry. Drier conditions have favored the continued harvest. A couple of fronts will move through this week, but showers again look limited and mostly favorable. The country would prefer for rainfall to come at least somewhat regularly to maintain soil moisture for winter wheat, which will start to be planted in May.

WET PATTERN FOR EUROPE MISSING POLAND

Scattered showers have been moving through Europe fairly regularly over the last week and continue this week as well. That has favored winter wheat development, but also produced some delays to planting. However, most areas now have good soil moisture outside of the northeast, which needs more rain. Rainfall this week will largely miss those drier areas in the northeast and the pattern should be quieter and milder next week. Poland especially could have more concerning weather conditions, at least for the time being.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA REGION

It was dry in the Black Sea region over the weekend with above-normal temperatures speeding along winter wheat development. The conditions have been good for planting, but not for plant growth. Limited showers will move through this week, but a front moving through this weekend will usher in some cooler temperatures and more dry conditions for next week. Overall, it's still poor weather conditions for growth.

DRIER IN AUSTRALIA

Limited showers went through southeastern Australia over the weekend, but many areas there are still very dry and need more rain. The same goes for much of the northeast, which has been much drier over the last couple of weeks. A couple of disturbances could bring through some areas of showers, but more areas will be missed than hit and will need more rain for wheat and canola planting and establishment. Western areas have been more favorable with periodic rainfall.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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