Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heavier rain from the Southern Plains into the Midwest this weekend could slow down planting progress while harvest in Argentina sees delays with showers continuing to move through until Friday. These are the weather factors driving the markets on Wednesday.

HEAVY RAIN ON THE WAY FOR THE SOUTHERN MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND

Lighter showers earlier this week mainly stayed north and allowed for some fieldwork progress farther south. Another system later this week should bring more widespread rain chances and the threat for severe thunderstorms. More systems are forecast for the late weekend and next week, keeping the region very active. Wet areas across the south are going to have many chances for bringing more water through, delaying planting and drowning winter wheat. Limited areas of drought across the northwest will have opportunity for further reduction. Temperatures will continue to swing with systems moving through but could level out closer to average next week.

UPCOMING RAINS FAVOR DEVELOPING WHEAT IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

The conditions for planting have been favorable, but with temperatures like summer across the south, it has not been favorable for developing winter wheat. The region should start to get more active again later this week and this weekend with a couple of systems moving through. Southwestern areas that have been somewhat drier lately need to see more rain and they may get it with a system that comes through this weekend, which is targeting this area with moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms. The pattern next week also looks favorable for bringing more rain chances through the region, but temperatures could remain on the warmer side in southern areas.

WETTER AND COOLER PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Though the weather pattern has been active and soil moisture has improved in a lot of areas, long-term drought still remains across much of the region and will not go away easily. Another system moving through later this week could bring some showers, but next week could favor better chances for multiple rounds of showers. While temperatures are riding a roller coaster through the rest of this week, they should trend below normal next week, which may delay the rising of soil temperatures and planting.

FLOODING RISK COULD CONTINUE IN THE DELTA INTO NEXT WEEK

The past few days have been on the drier side, allowing for better conditions to drain excessive water out of soils. Flooding along the Mississippi will take a lot of time to be reduced. A more active weather pattern this weekend and next week could create further flood conditions and limit potential for fieldwork, causing delays and potential damage.

RAIN AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL COULD BE LIGHT LATE THIS WEEK

Additional fronts moving up from Argentina should be supplying continued rainfall through this weekend. If these fronts produce what is being forecast, that should benefit pollinating corn. If they under-produce, then the below-normal soil moisture will be called upon to provide needed moisture too early and that could damage the corn. Showers could become less frequent next week and provide another risk for damaging the maturing corn.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR ARGENTINA BY THE WEEKEND

Fronts continue to move through central and northern areas through late this week. The country will likely get drier earlier next week with chances returning later in the week. Both corn and soybeans continue to mature across the country and would prefer drier weather to harvest so some delays may occur this week. Next week's weather should allow for more harvest progress.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN THE BLACK SEA

Above normal temperatures are expected to expand through this week and next week. The Caucasus have received some beneficial rainfall over the past few days, but it was confined to a smaller area. Systems regularly moving through Europe will lose a lot of their moisture as they move into Ukraine and western Russia, providing only limited and spotty showers through early next week. The lower precipitation forecast is not favorable for much of eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia that are still trying to recover from long-term drought.

SHOWERS FAVOR SOUTHEAST AUSTRALIA THIS WEEKEND

Soils have more moisture for winter wheat and canola planting after recent rains in western areas of Australia. Northeastern areas have seen some drier weather after heavy rain, creating mostly favorable conditions as well. The southeast has been much drier and is in need of some rain. The southeast should get some rainfall later this weekend into early next week. But northeastern areas may start to get too dry again with little rainfall in the forecast for the rest of the month.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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