DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across the Central and East with a trough off the West Coast. The trough will send pieces of energy eastward through next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A ridge will take over the West next weekend as the trough moves eastward one final time.

The U.S. and European models are at odds with the temperature forecast, though agree on the two storms moving through next week. I will use a blend but favor the GFS, which is warmer and more consistent.

Two storms will move through next week, spreading showers through the country. Models are still working out the details of these systems, though.

Temperatures should be somewhat variable with the systems moving through, though areas across the south will likely stay higher than normal throughout next week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...97 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW THU...6 AT MOUNT WASHINGTON, NH

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...BROWNSVILLE, TX 5.66 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge across the Central and East with a trough off the West Coast. The trough will send pieces of energy eastward through next week, though a ridge will take over the West next weekend as the trough moves eastward one final time.

The U.S. and European models are at odds with the temperature forecast, though agree on the two storms moving through next week. I will use a blend but favor the GFS, which is warmer and more consistent.

Two storms will move through next week, spreading showers through the country. Models are still working out the details of these systems, though.

Temperatures should be somewhat variable with the systems moving through, though areas across the south will likely stay higher than normal throughout next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Isolated showers continue to fall across the north on Friday. Saturday will be the best day for heavier precipitation, which would occur across the south. Two more storm systems should move through next week and weekend, bringing more precipitation chances.

However, drought is very much a concern heading into the season, even with the precipitation being forecast.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some streaks of light showers have moved through, but most areas have been warm and dry this week, an unfavorable combination for winter wheat. A system will move across the region through the weekend, with scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Another storm will likely roll through in the middle of next week with another over the weekend, but the forecast favors northern and eastern areas over the southwestern Plains, unfavorable for wheat.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Streaks of showers continue on Friday and a warmup is forecast ahead of another big storm system moving through this weekend with widespread showers and thunderstorms and potential for some northern snow. The weather pattern will stay active with two more storms for next week with more rounds of showers, thunderstorms, and potential snow. This may lead to a lot of precipitation in some areas and places being too wet to start on early fieldwork, but it may also help with the drought situation.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Though some streaks of rain have been passing through this week, warmer and drier conditions should have been beneficial for drying out soils and doing some early fieldwork. A system will move across the region this weekend with a couple of waves of showers and thunderstorms, including potential for severe weather and more heavy rain that could slow progress down.

BRAZIL (CORN): A stalled front across central Brazil has been producing scattered showers since last week, beneficial for the area that has seen very little rainfall previously. The front should stick around into next week with continued showers, though they may be light. Southern areas are getting a boost from some fronts moving through Argentina, which continues into next week. Soil moisture in the country is generally below normal outside of Mato Grosso, which is not very favorable for developing safrinha corn. This rain should help, but amounts are still below normal in most places.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Several impulses have moved through the country this week, producing beneficial showers for immature corn and soybeans. A front will move through this weekend and wipe out the showers, leaving behind mostly dry conditions for next week. More of each crop is heading into maturity, so the amount of benefit will continue to be lower as time passes. Double-crop soybeans will benefit the most from this rainfall, a smaller percentage of the overall soybean crop. The rain may have caused delays to the corn harvest.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Showers have been consistent across the south for most of the week, being largely beneficial for winter wheat there. Two fronts will move through over the weekend with showers over the north, with showers lingering in the east next week, but drier conditions farther west. Overall conditions for winter wheat are favorable, though the northeast could use more rain. Early fieldwork for corn and other spring-sown crops in the northwest should see beneficial conditions.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Above-normal temperatures continue to awaken wheat in largely poor condition with limited soil moisture in much of the region. An active pattern in Europe brought some rain through the region this week, but only in patchy locations that have favored the northwest. Eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia are largely too dry and in need of rainfall. Some streaks of showers may begin in these areas this weekend and pulses of showers may move through next week, which would be helpful.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Cotton and sorghum are maturing and undergoing harvest, but heavy rain has been moving over Queensland most of this week, and gotten into northern New South Wales as well. That system finally moves off the coast this weekend. The rain has been too heavy, which will delay cotton and sorghum harvest and may produce quality issues for both. However, it will be favorable for building soil moisture for wheat and canola that should start to be planted next month. The remnants of Tropical Cyclone 28 will move through in the middle of next week with more heavy rain potential as well. Western areas are forecast to stay largely drier through next week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday.

Scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, falling Sunday, below normal Monday-Tuesday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday.

Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, well above normal Friday-Sunday, falling Monday, below normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday.

Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, below normal north and above normal south Sunday, near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

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