An Urban's Rural View
Trump's Foreign Policy Leaves Many Questions Unanswered
The Trump administration has pressured Ukraine into accepting a 30-day ceasefire, withholding aid and intelligence until the country came to terms. It has yet to put much pressure on Russia.
Indeed, the administration has been making concessions to the Russians -- parroting their propaganda line on who started the war, declaring in advance of negotiations that Ukraine must cede territory, allowing them to rebuild their embassy staff.
The Russians' emergence as the good guys comes as a shock to many Americans. According to a new poll by More in Common, a nonprofit group dedicated to easing polarization, more than 50% agree Russia is solely responsible for the war and 67% (including 65% of Republicans) think the U.S. should continue aiding the Ukrainians. (https://moreincommon.substack.com/…)
President Donald Trump is said to want better relations with Russia in hopes of driving a wedge between Russia and China, which have become best buddies in recent years. This would arguably render China, America's biggest global concern, easier to deal with.
But what if Vladimir Putin's price for better relations is Ukraine's sovereignty? According to the More in Common poll, 70% of Americans think it's critical Ukraine retains its sovereignty.
Nor is it certain that a thaw in U.S.-Russia relations would isolate China. Besides, Putin is already getting something from Trump he's been trying to engineer for years -- weakened ties between the U.S. and its traditional allies.
Those allies have gotten the back of the hand from Washington lately and they have no illusions that their treatment will improve. Reacting to Trump's alignment with Russia, Germany's new chancellor-in-waiting, Friedrich Merz, said Europe needs to "achieve independence" from the U.S. Canada's new Prime Minister Mark Carney, reacting to Trump's tariffs, called the U.S. "a country we can no longer trust."
Many students of foreign affairs in the U.S. and abroad suspect Trump's ultimate goal is to bring the post-World War II world order to an end. They're wondering what will replace it.
From 1945 until recently, the U.S. was the lead actor, the builder and protector of that old order. We underwrote, with boots on the ground, the security of Japan, South Korea and much of Europe.
We allied with countries that shared our democratic values and criticized autocracies. We supported international institutions that promoted trade. We provided aid to developing countries.
Trump apparently wants the U.S. to play a lesser and different role. But how much lesser? How different? If there's a "Trump Doctrine," Trump hasn't disclosed it. Instead, he's left the world struggling with a host of questions about future American foreign policy.
Start with a critical short-term question: What kind of deal will the Ukrainians get in the negotiations to end the war? Having squeezed Ukraine into accepting a cease fire, what kind of pressure, if any, will the administration put on Russia? Will the war end with credible security guarantees for Ukraine, something that will only happen with the U.S. exerting pressure? Or will Trump insist that Ukraine take Putin's word that he won't attack again?
A longer-term question is the future of NATO and the U.S.-Japan and U.S.-South Korea security arrangements. Will those traditional alliances fall completely apart, forcing the erstwhile allies to become the sole providers of their own defense? Will all the U.S. troops be brought home from those countries? These seemed like theoretical questions in Trump's first term. Not anymore.
If NATO and other alliances are indeed moribund, as many Europeans fear, what will the U.S. do to prevent further nuclear proliferation? With Russia on its border, Poland is already talking about the possibility of acquiring nuclear weapons. The Japanese and the South Koreans see both China and North Korea as threats. Without the U.S., they would have little choice but to acquire nukes.
Smaller powers will want nuclear weapons for their deterrent power, which is undeniable. They're one reason the world has not seen a great-power war since the 1940s. But the more countries that have their own, the greater the chance of accidents, miscalculations and nukes falling into the hands of terrorists.
And then there's the China question. Some foreign affairs experts believe China's overwhelming dominance in manufacturing can't be countered by any country acting alone, even the U.S. They advocate coordination between like-minded countries trying to protect themselves from complete dependence on China. (https://www.dtnpf.com/…)
President Trump clearly doesn't agree. Coordination with other countries isn't in his DNA. He hopes to make a big, overarching economic agreement with China. There's already talk of a Trump-Xi summit this summer. Whether a deal can be achieved, and what it looks like, are among the big open questions.
More broadly, the China question is will the U.S. and China end up being both rivals and partners -- or rivals only?
A final big question: Are we entering a new age of Imperialism? Russia is hungry to take back countries like Ukraine that were once part of the Soviet Union. China is obsessed with Taiwan. And now the U.S. has a president who wants the U.S. to own Greenland, Canada and the Panama Canal.
To some of Trump's avid supporters, the president's foreign policy is an exhilarating step in the right direction. To other Americans, including some who voted for him, it's bewildering.
Maybe the president's moves are negotiating tactics. Maybe the world order will end up modified rather than transformed. Chances are, though, that there will be a lot more bewilderment during the next four years.
Urban Lehner can be reached at urbanize@gmail.com
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