Ag Weather Forum

The National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) out of Boise, Idaho, released a report on Friday, Feb. 28, stating there have been a total of 5,425 wildfires so far in 2025 that have burned 108,535 acres in the United States. This amount is above the 10-year average of wildfires, which sits at 4,526. Drought, warmer temperatures, and high winds are some of the weather factors that have led to thousands of wildfires already, and the wildfire outlook for this spring is concerning, especially across the Great Plains.

This week, across the Plains, wildfires have been cropping up as above-average temperatures developed and gusty winds accompanied clipper systems. As of Friday, Feb. 28, a strong clipper continues to march through the Great Lakes. It's providing gusty northwest winds on the backside of the system along with little to no precipitation in states such as Nebraska, Missouri, and Iowa. The gusty winds, dry air, and minimal precipitation prompted the National Weather Service to issue Red Flag Warnings on Friday that expanded from central South Dakota into northwest Arkansas and east-central Illinois. Red Flag Warnings are issued to warn of the high risk of wildfires.

The high risk for wildfires on Friday comes around the first anniversary of the large wildfires that overtook the Texas Panhandle in late February 2024. One of the more notable fires was the Smokehouse Creek Fire that impacted the northeast Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma, where it burned over one million acres before it was contained around the middle of March.

The largest active wildfire in the U.S., as of Feb. 28, is the Dismal River Ranch Fire in the Sandhills of Nebraska, which burned 50,000 acres and is 85% contained. Nebraska's governor also declared a state of emergency on Feb. 27 due to additional wildfires in Custer and Dawes Counties in central and western Nebraska. Northwest wind gusts near 30-40 mph, low relative humidity near 20% to 30%, and dry vegetation are to blame for the high wildfire risk in Nebraska on Friday.

Through the upcoming weekend, temperatures are forecast to remain above average throughout much of the Plains, with high temperatures reaching into the 50s to 70s from Nebraska into the Texas Panhandle. Warmer temperatures can often elevate wildfire conditions even more as higher temperatures will increase evaporation rates, which ultimately lead to drier vegetative fuels for the wildfires to feed on.

While winds are expected to settle down considerably on Saturday, which should help containment rates for ongoing wildfires in Nebraska, winds pick up again on Sunday in the Southern Plains. Sunday's wind gusts across West Texas and Oklahoma could approach 35 to 45 mph as a system from the west drops into the Southern Plains. Some precipitation is expected to accompany this system, but it will be on the lighter side, totaling up to 0.25-0.50 inch for parts of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma and Kansas.

The upcoming weekend into early next week will likely not be the only time that the Central and Southern Plains are going to have to deal with elevated wildfire risks. Pockets of severe and extreme drought extend through Nebraska and southern South Dakota, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor released on Feb. 27. Farther south, the Texas Panhandle into Kansas got more precipitation than the Southern Plains, but abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions extend through these areas as well.

Combining the drought with windy and dry conditions is the ultimate recipe to get wildfires started. Additionally, we can't forget that in the early spring, a lot of vegetation has yet to green up, and there's still quite a bit of dormant brush and grass that acts as tinder. The precipitation outlook for March and April favors below-average precipitation for the Southern Plains as a more northerly storm track is favored through the Midwest. Additionally, temperatures throughout the Plains are favored to be at least 2 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit above average in March, with above-average temperatures mainly favoring the Southern Plains in April.

Extra precautions will be needed throughout the Great Plains this spring to help reduce the risk of wildfires as the temperature and precipitation outlooks look favorable for additional wildfires to develop. When larger systems approach the region with higher winds, the wildfire risk will be especially elevated. Consider staying up to date with the latest wildfires by visiting the NIFC's website, where they provide information on the location, size, and containment of ongoing wildfires: https://www.nifc.gov/….

To find more weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, head over to https://www.dtnpf.com/…

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.