DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West with a trough in northeast Canada. The trough in northeast Canada continues to guide another clipper system through the North on Friday. A cutoff low in the Southwest will advance into the Central and Southern Plains this weekend. Another trough will come crashing into the West Coast later this weekend and move east into the Plains by next Tuesday.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A trough will advance through Central and East during the middle of next week, leading to widespread precipitation, severe weather in the South and heavier snow in the North.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Colder air should spread through more of the country behind the bigger system next week, although temperatures will not be as cold as the most recent cold snap in mid-February. Towards late next week, a few additional systems may pass through Central and East, providing quick bursts of snow and rain. While temperatures fluctuate across the South next week, the Northern Plains are expected to remain above average.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...91 AT SANTEE, CA

LOW THU...23 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CST THURSDAY...PORTLAND, ME 0.47 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in the West with a trough in northeast Canada. The trough in northeast Canada continues to guide another clipper system through the North on Friday. A cutoff low in the Southwest will advance into the Central and Southern Plains this weekend. Another trough will come crashing into the West Coast later this weekend and move east into the Plains by next Tuesday.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A trough will advance through Central and East during the middle of next week, leading to widespread precipitation, severe weather in the South and heavier snow in the North. Colder air should spread through more of the country behind the bigger system next week, although temperatures will not be as cold as the most recent cold snap in mid-February. Towards late next week, a few additional systems may pass through Central and East, providing quick bursts of snow and rain. While temperatures fluctuate across the South next week, the Northern Plains are expected to remain above average.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): The region could use more moisture ahead of spring planting as recent clipper systems provided very light and isolated precipitation this week. Mostly dry conditions are expected through the weekend along with warmer temperatures. A larger system from the West could provide more widespread showers early next week, but in the wake of this system, temperatures aren't expected to drop rapidly as they will still hover around or a few degrees above average.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Temperatures will be on the warmer side into early next week, which could promote greening of winter wheat.

A small system will move into the region on Sunday with more potent showers across the south and a larger system is forecast for early-mid next week with more widespread showers. Temperatures will take a brief dip below normal later next week in the wake of the larger system, but the cold won't be as intense as the mid-February arctic blast.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Warm temperatures have melted most of the snow that was still lingering in the region last week. A clipper system passes through the region on Friday, but showers will be limited and gusty northwest winds are expected. Cooler temperatures will likely move through eastern areas behind a system this weekend. A larger system is forecast for the middle of next week that could provide a band of heavy snow and scattered rain showers, followed by milder air. After this system, a few quick bursts of rain and snow may move through late in the week.

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (TRANSPORTATION): Water levels should start falling this weekend, but barge traffic may still be slower with the flooding along the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers and their tributaries. The risk for heavier rain and severe thunderstorms returns through the first half of next week with a cool down expected afterwards.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Wet-season showers continue across west-central areas with spottier showers in the east and south. Showers this week have been making it tougher to finish up soybean harvest and the remaining safrinha corn planting. A similar pattern is expected for next week with showers favoring Mato Grosso. The spottier showers in southern and eastern areas are unfavorable for any immature full-season crops or newly planted safrinha crops.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Wet conditions from stalled fronts have reduced any further damage from the dry and hot conditions in early February. A parade of systems will continue to sweep across southern areas into next week with their fronts extending into central and northern Argentina. If showers linger for too long in some spots next week, soils may get too saturated ahead of harvest that will start later in March.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers continue across eastern Europe through the end of the week but a strong area of high pressure will lead to drier conditions across much of the continent this weekend into the middle of next week, except across the southwest and far east. The drier conditions could lend to more progress for wheat planting. This extended period of drier weather should be more favorable for the UK and France, which have been too wet. Spain, which is in need of more precipitation, will continue to see isolated to scattered showers next week.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Below-average temperatures continue across the region through at least early next week. Areas near the Caucuses, which do not have much protective snow cover have been and continue to be at risk for winterkill.

Snowfall continues to be limited and it will be light and spotty into the middle of next week before a larger system may move through at the end of the week. Drought continues to be a major concern as the winter crop should be awakening from dormancy over the next several weeks in mostly poor condition in the east. More precipitation is needed, but the prospects are low.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Temperatures remain largely above average across much of the country into next week, which will be stressful for immature cotton and sorghum. Parts of Western Australia will see a slight cool down this weekend, but warmer temperatures return next week. Systems will be largely passing by well to the south with limited or no precipitation through early next week. Tropical Cyclone Alfred is forecast to stay well north of the main cotton and sorghum areas through the weekend, but will be watched to see if it moves into Queensland next week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday, near normal Sunday, above normal Monday-Tuesday.

East: Isolated showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Monday, above normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, near normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Tuesday.

Temperatures near to above normal Friday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday.

Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

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