Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Widespread showers in Argentina are too late to benefit the maturing corn and soybean crop, but the rainfall helps reduce further crop damage. Wet-season showers continue in central Brazil, making it tougher to plant and harvest. These are the weather factors driving the markets on Thursday.

COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND

Snow cover will continue to diminish through the rest of the week with warmer temperatures in place. A few more clippers will continue to pass through over the next few days, but with overall limited precipitation and potentially breezy conditions. Cooler temperatures will likely move through eastern areas behind a system this weekend. A larger system is forecast for the middle of next week that could provide a band of heavy snow, followed by milder air.

WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures will be on the warmer side through early next week, which could promote greening of winter wheat. A small system will move into the region on Sunday with more potent showers across the south. A larger system is forecast for early-mid next week with more widespread showers. Temperatures will take a brief dip below normal later next week in the wake of the larger system, but the cold won't be as intense as the mid-February arctic blast.

NEXT LARGER SYSTEM FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK

Temperatures remain on the warmer side into early next week. Even as clipper systems pass by the region through the rest of this week, precipitation will remain light, and most areas will remain on the drier side. A larger system from the West could provide more widespread showers early next week, but in the wake of this system, temperatures are likely to fall closer to average.

DRIER CONDITIONS ALLOW WATER LEVELS TO GRADUALLY FALL IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI

Water levels should start falling this weekend, but barge traffic may still be slower with the flooding along the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers and their tributaries. The risk for heavier rain and severe thunderstorms returns through the first half of next week with a cool down expected afterwards.

SOYBEAN HARVEST AND CORN PLANTING SLOWING DOWN IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Favorable weather the last couple of weeks have allowed producers to catch up to the normal pace for soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting in central Brazil. Some of the crop is deemed late planted, but it is typical for this time of year. However, drier conditions that have allowed for the progress are somewhat stressful for the newly planted corn. Showers will be scattered into early next week, typical for this time of year. Although areas in the east and south will have much lower coverage, unfavorable for any immature full-season crops or newly planted safrinha crops.

WET PATTERN CONTINUES IN ARGENTINA NEXT WEEK

A front gets pushed north on Thursday, wiping out the recent heat. Another system will move through this weekend with more widespread rain and leave a front over the country that looks to stay active next week. Hot and dry conditions in January and much of February have caused some damage for both corn and soybeans, though more favorable weather is forecast into early March. Rains should help reduce any further damage and keep crop conditions steady.

RISK FOR WINTERKILL CONTINUES IN THE BLACK SEA

Below-average temperatures continue across the region through at least early next week. Areas near the Caucuses, which do not have much protective snow cover have been and continue to be at risk for winterkill. Snowfall continues to be limited, and it will be light and spotty into the upcoming weekend. Drought continues to be a major concern as the winter crop should be awakening from dormancy over the next several weeks in mostly poor condition in the east. More precipitation is needed, but the prospects are low.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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