DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West with a trough in northern Canada. Disturbances will go over the top of the ridge this week. A trough will push into the West this weekend, shifting part of the ridge eastward but another part north into Alaska.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The trough will move into the middle of the country next week and disturbances will move underneath the Alaskan ridge and through the U.S., keeping an overall trough going for much of North America.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though they disagree with the development of a system next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A little system is likely to move into the Southern Plains on Sunday and move across the Southeast with scattered showers early next week. A larger storm system is forecast for early-mid next week that will move across the country.

Warmer air is forecast for most places this weekend into next week, though some areas in the East will get a bit cooler behind the weekend system for a day or two. Colder air should spread through more of the country behind the bigger system next week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...91 AT GLAMIS, CA AND OGULBY, CA

LOW MON...8 BELOW ZERO NEAR CHESUNCOOK, ME

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CST MONDAY...KEY WEST, FL 3.13 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in the West with a trough in northern Canada. Disturbances will go over the top of the ridge this week. A trough will push into the West this weekend, shifting part of the ridge eastward but another part north into Alaska. The trough will move into the middle of the country next week and disturbances will move underneath the Alaskan ridge and through the U.S., keeping an overall trough going for much of North America.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though they disagree with the development of a system next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A little system is likely to move into the Southern Plains on Sunday and move across the Southeast with scattered showers early next week. A larger storm system is forecast for early-mid next week that will move across the country.

Warmer air is forecast for most places this weekend into next week, though some areas in the East will get a bit cooler behind the weekend system for a day or two. Colder air should spread through more of the country behind the bigger system next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Temperatures remain very warm this week. Clipper systems moving through several times this week may bring some winds and brief showers, but most areas will stay warm and dry this week.

Temperatures are likely to fall next week, but not nearly to the same degree we saw last week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Warm conditions have melted the remaining snow. Several clippers will pass by to the north this week, but outside of a few spotty showers, it should be drier. A small system will move into the region on Sunday with more potent showers across the south and a larger system is forecast for early-mid next week with more widespread showers.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Temperatures rose over the weekend and will stay warm most of the week. Several clippers will move through this week, but with overall limited precipitation. Cooler temperatures will likely move through eastern areas behind a system this weekend. And a larger system is forecast for the middle of next week, followed by more milder air.

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (TRANSPORTATION): It was largely dry over the weekend, allowing water levels to crest in many areas. Southern areas saw rain, though.

Water levels should start falling later this week and weekend, but barge traffic may still be slower with the flooding along the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers and their tributaries. A drier pattern this week should help the rivers to fall into a more manageable range.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Favorable weather the last couple of weeks have allowed producers to catch up to the normal pace for soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting in central Brazil. Some of the crop is deemed late-planted, but it is typical for this time of year. However, the drier conditions that have allowed for the progress are also somewhat stressful for the newly planted corn.

Showers will be scattered this week, typical for this time of year, though areas in the east and south will have much lower coverage, unfavorable for any immature full-season crops or newly planted safrinha crops.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Hot and dry conditions over the weekend have been very stressful for corn and soybeans. However, a front moved into the far south and will remain in southern states for the next couple of days. That has already produced some heavy rainfall and will continue to do so until the front gets pushed north on Thursday or Friday, wiping out the heat. Another system will move through this weekend with more widespread rain and leave a front over the country that looks to stay active next week. Hot and dry conditions in January and much of February have caused some damage for both corn and soybeans, though more favorable weather is forecast into early March.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers that moved through western Europe over the weekend are spreading eastward into drier areas of the continent this week, but not with much intensity. Rainfall has been favorable in Spain, but not in France or the UK, which have been very wet for a long time. Showers wane this weekend across the east and some dry days are forecast into next week, at least for a little while.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Cold temperatures last week will be slow to erode this week. Areas near the Caucuses, which do not have much protective snow cover have been and continue to be at risk for winterkill. Limited snowfall this week will not add much protection. Drought continues to be a major concern as the winter crop should be awakening from dormancy over the next several weeks in mostly poor condition in the east. More precipitation is needed, but the prospects are low until late next week.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Temperatures are increasing this week and will be stressful for immature cotton and sorghum. Systems will be largely passing by well to the south with limited or no precipitation this week. Tropical Cyclone Alfred is forecast to stay well north of the main cotton and sorghum areas this week, but will be watched to see if it moves into Queensland next week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday. Scattered showers Monday-Wednesday.

Mostly dry Thursday. Temperatures above normal west and below normal east Sunday-Monday, above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Spotty showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers south Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

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