Ag Weather Forum
Much of Corn Belt Has Long-Term Drought Ahead of Spring Planting
The calendar moves into the meteorological spring season (March, April and May) on Saturday, March 1, attention to soil temperature and moisture ahead of spring planting will ramp up. Across much of the Corn Belt, those soils do not have much in the bank when it comes to moisture reserves.
Colorado Assistant State Climatologist Peter Goble pointed out this issue during a NOAA North Central Region climate and drought update and outlook webinar. He noted that large portions of eastern Nebraska; eastern Kansas; northern, central and western Missouri; western through east-central Iowa; and central Indiana have precipitation deficits over the last three years (mid-February 2022 through mid-February 2025), which have accrued to 20 inches or more below normal.
"This is important because unless we get more good moisture going into the spring before the growing season starts in earnest, it can lead to extra agricultural impacts or even early agricultural drought impacts to start this growing season," Goble said. "So that's definitely something we want to keep our eye on going forward."
These areas almost entirely depend on precipitation for crop moisture. That includes Nebraska and Kansas, where the greatest three-year precipitation deficits are in areas that are mostly non-irrigated.
Dry conditions last fall contributed to this long-term precipitation lag. September and October were very dry. In fact, USDA's 2024 crop season weather summary notes: "According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, drought coverage peaked at 54.08% on Oct. 29, while collective coverage of abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate to exceptional drought (D1 to D4) soared to 87.78% of the Lower 48 States by Nov. 5, with the latter value being a Drought Monitor-era record. The previous record of 85.28% had been set on Nov. 1, 2022."
This long-term precipitation deficit again highlights the importance of spring precipitation for soil moisture recharge this year, particularly in March, when moisture that occurs has a better chance of infiltrating the soil profile. However, DTN's forecast for this long-term dry portion of the Corn Belt through the first half of March is for below-normal precipitation, with the focus of rain or snow in the northern Midwest. So, long-term drought looks to continue to be a worry point as spring 2025 gets underway.
Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com
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