Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Argentina will see showers through the weekend, which should stabilize crop conditions. Meanwhile, central Brazil will see much drier conditions next week, which should be beneficial for fieldwork. These are the weather factors driving the markets on Friday.

MORE SNOW AND RAIN ON THE WAY FOR THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND

An active pattern is expected for eastern areas. Two more large systems are forecast through the region this weekend and next week, keeping the region busy, but also aiding some of the drought areas with increased precipitation. There will be a flooding risk for portions of the Ohio Valley. Cold air from the northwest will eventually drift east early next week. Well below-average temperatures are expected throughout the region for much of next week.

TEMPERATURES PLUMMET ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK

Below-average temperatures moved into the region and that cold will be a concern for uncovered winter wheat, which has had a couple of bouts of very cold air over the winter. Another system is possible over the weekend, which could lead to heavier rain in the southeast Plains. Another system will move through early next week that could provide wintry precipitation as far south as northern Texas. The snow would be helpful to cover up winter wheat, but livestock will need extra rations with the cold.

FRIGID AIR WITH SNOW CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Cold air continues to be stuck in the region for the next week, though we should see some moderation next weekend. The cold should cause additional stress and needed rations for livestock. A moderate band of snow is expected to develop next week, mainly across southeastern Montana into South Dakota, but outside of this round of snow, precipitation looks rather light and spotty. Drought continues to be a big issue as well.

HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA THIS WEEKEND

Barge traffic may slow down with the recent heavy precipitation that has led to higher water levels and minor flooding along the Mississippi's tributaries. Another round of heavy rain and stronger thunderstorms is expected Saturday. It will continue to lead to higher water levels and potential for flooding for the rest of the month. By next week, another system could move through and provide wintry precipitation to Arkansas or northern Mississippi.

WARMER AND DRIER IN CENTRAL BRAZIL NEXT WEEK

Wet season showers in central Brazil remain scattered through the weekend, but by next week, they could become much more isolated. That should allow for producers to continue to make progress on soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting. That is needed because they are still well behind the normal pace and have around one more week for their window to complete safrinha corn planting before it is considered late. Heavy rain is possible across southern Brazil going into next week as a front could stall across the region.

SHOWERS COULD STABALIZE CROP CONDITIONS IN ARGENTINA THIS WEEKEND

Another front will be moving through Friday into Saturday with a front stalling out across northern areas early next week. The heaviest precipitation with this system favors the northeast once again, while the lightest precipitation is expected across southern Buenos Aires and La Pampa. Some damage has already occurred for the corn and soybean crops, and there is no guarantee that the coming rain will be able to turn around conditions, but it should help at least stabilize the crop.

MORE SHOWERS IN THE BLACK SEA

Wheat went dormant in good condition in the west, but poor condition in the east, particularly in southwestern Russia. Showers haven't been heavy or consistent enough to boost soil moisture. A system will move through this weekend with some needed precipitation and potential snow cover. Cold temperatures may follow and there is a risk for exposed wheat in some areas. Another system could move through late next week as the pattern turns slightly more active.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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