DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across the southeast U.S. with troughs in Canada and the western U.S. The Canadian trough will be a consistent feature for the next 10 days, guiding additional troughs and disturbances from the West through the East. One will build up across the West and Central this week, pushing the ridge to the Southeast. The ridge will flex briefly late this week, but another trough will swing through this weekend and another will follow in the middle of next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The weather pattern is likely to change after that last trough moves through in the middle of next week, setting up more of a ridge in the west and a trough in the east for the end of February.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar with their upper-air forecasts, but differ with the details at the surface. I will use a blend but favor the GFS.

A big system will move through this weekend and another is forecast to move through in the middle of next week. Both systems look to favor the Delta to the Northeast with the heaviest precipitation on the current forecast. Areas of freezing rain and heavy snow are also forecast with both systems. Cold air will hang out in the Plains and Upper Midwest while the South and Southeast see temperatures waffling with the systems moving through.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...91 AT 17 MILES EAST OF OCHOPEE, FL

LOW MON...35 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7M CDT MONDAY...NORFOLK, VA and RALEIGH DURHAM, NC 0.24 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge across the southeast U.S. with troughs in Canada and the western U.S. The Canadian trough will be a consistent feature for the next 10 days, guiding additional troughs and disturbances from the West through the East. One will build up across the West and Central this week, pushing the ridge to the Southeast. The ridge will flex briefly late this week, but another trough will swing through this weekend and another will follow in the middle of next week. The weather pattern is likely to change a little bit after that last trough.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar with their upper-air forecasts, but differ with the details at the surface. I will use a blend but favor the GFS.

A big system will move through this weekend and another is forecast to move through in the middle of next week. Both systems look to favor the Delta to the Northeast with the heaviest precipitation on the current forecast. Areas of freezing rain and heavy snow are also forecast with both systems. Cold air will hang out in the Plains and Upper Midwest while the South and Southeast see temperatures waffling with the systems moving through.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Cold air continues to be stuck in the region for the next two weeks, though we should see some moderation next weekend. The cold should cause additional stress and needed rations for livestock. Some light snow will move through at times, but heavy snow is not in the forecast. Drought continues to be a big issue as well.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Below-average temperatures moved into the region and that cold will be a concern for uncovered winter wheat, which has had a couple of bouts of very cold air over the winter. A widespread and heavier system is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday and heavy snow is expected across southern Nebraska and the northern half of Kansas.

Another system is possible over the weekend, but precipitation could be lighter. The snow would be helpful to cover up winter wheat, but livestock will need extra rations with the cold.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): An active pattern is expected for eastern areas. A system will continue to scrape through southern areas Tuesday while another comes through with more widespread and heavier precipitation right behind it on Wednesday. This will likely include more freezing rain and heavy snow. Two more large systems are forecast through the region this weekend and next week, keeping the region busy but also aiding some of the drought areas with increased precipitation. Cold air sits across the northwest and will pulse through the rest of the region at times behind these systems. The northwest may also remain on the drier side as all these systems work off to the south and east.

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (TRANSPORTATION): Heavy precipitation last week brought water levels up higher and will lead to minor flooding in some spots, which may make transportation a little more difficult. A constant barrage of storms moving through this week and next week will continue to lead to higher water levels and potential for flooding for the rest of the month.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Wet season showers in central Brazil continue all this week. However, showers should not be as intense as earlier this harvest period, instead being more typical of wet season rainfall for this time of year, or even spottier. That should allow for producers to continue to make progress on soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting. That is needed because they are still well behind the normal pace and have less than two weeks in their window to complete safrinha corn planting before it is considered late.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will continue to slowly drift north through Thursday with scattered showers. There is some potential for areas of heavy rain, but not widespread and likely favoring the northeast. The pattern does look a little more active with another front moving through Friday into Saturday and another early next week. Some damage has already occurred for the corn and soybean crops, and there is no guarantee that the coming rain will be able to turn around conditions, but it should help to at least stabilize the crop.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Western and central areas are favored with precipitation this week and Spain may benefit from a continued active pattern next week.

France, which has been too wet lately, may finally see a more substantial break in the rain this weekend into early next week. Areas in the east still remain too dry, but a stronger front could push through this weekend and lead to widespread snow.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Wheat went dormant in good condition in the west, but poor condition in the east, particularly in southwestern Russia. Showers haven't been heavy or consistent enough to boost soil moisture. The forecast is fairly dry, though a system may move through this weekend with some needed precipitation and potential snow cover. Cold temperatures may follow and there is some risk for exposed wheat in some areas.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Isolated showers became scattered in New South Wales, which will help immature cotton and sorghum there. Other areas have been drier, however. Multiple areas of tropical activity continue over northern sections of Australia, but are generally not a concern for southern or eastern farming areas as of the current forecast.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers south. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers through Wednesday, mostly south. Mostly dry Thursday.

Isolated to scattered showers Friday night-Saturday. Temperatures below to well below normal Tuesday-Thursday, below normal Friday-Saturday.

East: Scattered showers Tuesday-early Thursday. Mostly dry later Thursday-Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Sunday, mainly east. Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Scattered showers east Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures below to well below normal Sunday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures below to well below normal north and near to above normal south Tuesday-Wednesday, below to well below normal Thursday-Friday, below to well below normal north and near to above normal south Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated showers north Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Temperatures below to well below normal Sunday-Monday, well below normal north and near to above normal south Tuesday, below to well below normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday, north Friday.

Scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday.

Teresa Wells can be reached at Teresa.Wells@dtn.com

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