Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Very cold temperatures will soon blanket much of the U.S. by early next week and showers will be moving through some of the drier areas of Argentina and southern Brazil this weekend. These are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

ARCTIC AIR TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND

Temperatures remain on the warmer side for Friday, especially across the northwest. But a system moving through this weekend should bring a burst of showers as a mix of rain and snow and will be followed by a burst of extremely cold air through most of next week. The cold will keep lake-effect snow going for several days as well. A slight warming trend may not return until the end of next week.

ARCTIC AIR BRINGS A RISK FOR WINTER KILL IN THE SOUTHWEST PLAINS NEXT WEEK

A front and system will move through Friday and Saturday, bringing limited showers and another burst of very cold air. Exposed wheat areas may see some winter kill from this burst of cold that should last well into next week. A system may form early next week in the cold air, bringing potential widespread wintry prospects across the south.

BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A front moves through on Friday, bringing scattered light snow and a burst of very cold air for a few days. Cold temperatures could add some extra stress to livestock. While some moderation will be possible for the second half of next week, more cold air is likely to flow in next weekend. Another clipper system from Canada will dip south during the middle of next week, but snowfall could be light.

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

Water levels remain above the low-water mark in most of the Mississippi and Ohio River systems, making for mostly easy transportation. Northern areas of the Mississippi Basin are getting drier though and could use some precipitation to keep water levels up. A system moving through this weekend could help somewhat, though the forecast is drier for most of the region through next week. Any above-average precipitation next week will favor far southern areas with potential wintry precipitation moving through early in the week.

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FAVORABLE FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Widespread wet season showers continue in central and northern Brazil, favorable for filling soybeans, but hampering the very early harvest. The main harvest period does not start for another week, so the rain is overall favorable, but becoming less so. If rainfall continues to be heavy for the end of January and into February, it may have more of an impact on harvesting soybeans and planting safrinha corn. Showers across the south have been much less frequent, which has been a problem for filling soybeans in Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana and pollinating to filling corn in Rio Grande do Sul. A front moving through this weekend is looking to bring more widespread precipitation but could be followed by another period of dryness.

SOUTHEAST ARGENTINA MAY MISS THIS WEEKEND'S SHOWERS

Soil moisture is falling in many areas of Argentina with very little showers, leading to declining crop conditions. We should see a burst of showers moving through over the next few days, but any heavy amounts may be limited to central areas while eastern areas remain on the drier side. Models disagree on the amount of precipitation that is expected to fall, but dry conditions are expected to follow well into next week, especially across critical central production areas. The next chance for more widespread rainfall may not occur until the end of next week.

RAINS RETURN TO SPAIN NEXT WEEK

Drier conditions continue in Europe, with only limited showers moving through the northeast and west at various points over the next couple of weeks. The drier conditions would be more favored across the northwest, but more rain is needed in Spain as well as some other dry areas in the southeast. Spain may finally see a period of consistent showers next week that should benefit soil moisture. There are no risks of significant cold for the next couple of weeks.

DRY IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA WITH SHOWERS ONGOING IN THE EAST

Scattered showers have been going through eastern areas recently, offering some help for developing cotton and sorghum. Dry areas in the west and south are not getting as lucky with only limited showers and declining soil moisture in these areas. Well above-average temperatures are also not favorable for the dry western areas as any relief in these temperatures is unlikely next week.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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