Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- An overall cold pattern that continues for much of the U.S. with another disruptive winter system later this week, and drier conditions in Argentina and southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

COLDER IN THE MIDWEST, MORE SNOW COMING

Another snow producing system will move through southern and eastern Midwest Friday and Saturday. A clipper will follow behind it for the weekend into early next week with scattered snow as well. Models are insisting on milder temperatures across the north in the short term after a cold burst this week, though southern areas that have seen snow could take a while to melt and keep temperatures down for a bit. And a short burst of cold could follow behind the clipper early next week. A much bigger burst of cold air is being forecast for next weekend into the following week behind a large system that could mean heavy precipitation as well.

ANOTHER BIG STORM FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Cold air that has settled into the Central and Southern Plains is extremely cold where the snow from the weekend was the heaviest. The cold could cause winter kill on exposed wheat and higher rations for livestock. A system will move through Texas and Oklahoma on Thursday and Friday and may clip southeastern Kansas with some moderate snow as well. That could help the soil moisture situation in these areas. It will also be a generally colder pattern through much of next week too. A big storm system is likely to move through late next week or weekend, potentially bringing some heavier precipitation, but also another burst of very cold air.

DROUGHT CONTINUES IN NORTHERN PLAINS, MINIMAL HELP

The Northern Plains will see several systems and fronts push through over the next couple of weeks, but not enough to have a significant impact on the drought that continues to be a concern this winter. Temperatures will be more above normal than below it through most of next week, but we could see a big burst of cold air moving back into the region next weekend.

WATER LEVELS STILL HIGH ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

Water levels remain above the low-water mark in most of the Mississippi and Ohio River systems, bolstered by strong storm this past weekend and another coming up on Thursday and Friday. If yet another one of these larger systems moves through later next week, water levels will continue to be high, allowing for easy transportation. Northern areas of the Mississippi Basin is getting drier though, and could use some precipitation.

GOOD WEATHER IN CENTRAL BRAZIL, DRIER SOUTH

Widespread wet season showers continue in central and northern Brazil, favorable for filling soybeans, but perhaps hampering the very early harvest. The main harvest period does not start for a couple of weeks yet, so the rain is overall favorable. Showers across the south are much more infrequent for the next couple of weeks, which could be a problem for filling soybeans in Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana and pollinating to filling corn in Rio Grande do Sul.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN ARGENTINA CAUSING CONCERN

Soil moisture is falling in many areas of Argentina and the forecast is only calling for spotty, isolated showers across the south through next week. That should start leading to issues for early planted corn that is pollinating to filling. It is still early for late-planted corn and soybeans to have major concerns, but issues may start to pop up with temperatures above normal coinciding with the lack of rainfall.

MORE RAIN MOVING THROUGH EUROPE

Several systems are moving through Europe this week, bringing moderate to heavy precipitation where it isn't welcome in parts of France, Germany and the UK which have been wet for a long time. Rain going through Spain and parts of the drier east are helpful for wheat there, however. The pattern for next week is drier overall across the north, but we could see showers continuing near the Mediterranean. There are no risks of significant cold for the next couple of weeks.

DRY AUSTRALIA HOPING FOR MORE RAIN

Australia has been going through a drier stretch for a while with lower-than-normal soil moisture in many areas outside of the far east, not a good sign for developing cotton and sorghum. The pattern may get more active with fronts becoming more frequent starting this weekend, but models do not have much precipitation with them just yet.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.