Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Severe storms and areas of heavy rain are possible across the southeast Plains and Lower Mississippi through the end of the week. Showers continue at a decent pace in central Brazil with the next chances for rain returning early next week for Argentina. These are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK FOR THE MIDWEST

Widespread rainfall is expected late this week as a system drifts through the region. Showers will linger across the eastern Midwest through Sunday before another system advances through southern and eastern areas early next week. Snowfall will be hard to come by with these systems moving through as temperatures remain on the warm side; however, towards late next week, temperatures will start to dive below normal.

WEST TEXAS MISSING OUT ON RAIN WHILE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ARE WET

Wheat areas in the west have been drier lately. The pattern keeps the southeast Plains on the wetter side through early this weekend before a quick-moving system enters the Central Plains early next week. With warmer temperatures in place until early next week, precipitation will largely be in the form of rain. However, temperatures may be cool enough for snow across Nebraska with the system early next week.

COOLER TEMPERATURES COULD RETURN IN EARLY JANUARY FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Well above average temperatures are expected to continue through the end of the month and only isolated showers are expected into the weekend. The next chance for more scattered showers won't return until early next week. By the start of the new year, a more prolonged blast of arctic air could develop that could linger through the first few weeks of January. Heavier precipitation is needed across the region to help reduce drought conditions and improve soil moisture.

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI

Water levels have shown some recent improvements with systems moving through areas to the north, like the Ohio River Valley. Another system is expected to move through late this week, providing widespread scattered rain showers. That should help to give a longer bump to the water levels, removing restrictions for transport across the Lower Mississippi for a while. A more prolonged dry stretch of weather and cooler temperatures won't return until late next week.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MATURING CROPS IN BRAZIL

Fronts will continue to move through central Brazil, providing widespread, wet-season rain showers and favorable conditions for flowering to filling soybeans and developing corn. Showers will be much more limited across southern Brazil through the end of the month, but towards the beginning of January, more systems may eventually lead to scattered showers.

SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY RETURN TO ARGENTINA EARLY NEXT WEEK

Only spotty showers have taken place earlier this week with a weaker front moving through. Otherwise, drier and cooler conditions are expected through the upcoming weekend before a few more fronts move through next week. With next week's fronts, showers may be a bit more widespread and favorable for developing corn and soybeans.

SPOTTY SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN BLACK SEA

Wheat went dormant in good condition in the west, but poor condition in the east, particularly in southwestern Russia. The region will hope for good precipitation over the winter for when the wheat breaks dormancy in the spring. Scattered showers have been more prevalent since crops went dormant; however, the pattern looks drier to end the year and begin 2025.

HIT OR MISS SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AUSTRALIA

The pattern continues to be drier to end the year with only limited showers, mainly across the far south and far east as a couple of systems move through. Scattered showers may disrupt the remaining wheat and canola harvest in eastern areas, but due to the spotty nature of the showers, soils could dry out for cotton and sorghum after recent rains had improved conditions.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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