Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- While beneficial rains will develop across the Lower Mississippi, warm temperatures are expected for much of the U.S. this week, and showers in central and southern Brazil will be favorable for developing crops. These are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

REDUCED SNOWPACK FOR THE MIDWEST AS WARMER TEMPERATURES LINGER

With mild temperatures now in place, it will be very warm for the Christmas holiday. The pattern stays active through the rest of this week with several systems moving through. Any snow associated with these systems will likely be concentrated more towards the Canadian border and rainfall farther south could reduce the snowpack.

SOUTHWEST PLAINS REMAIN DRIER WHILE SOUTHEAST PLAINS HAVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN

Wheat areas in the west have been drier lately. The pattern may be a little more favorable for precipitation this week as several systems move through with potential for precipitation, mostly in the form of rain with very warm temperatures in the region. However, the bulk of this week's precipitation could impact the eastern Plains more than western areas.

NORTHERN PLAINS REMAIN WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK

Well above average temperatures are expected to continue through the end of the month. Small systems will provide light rain and snow showers to the region this week, but towards the start of the new year, a more prolonged blast of arctic air could develop that could linger through the first few weeks of January. Heavier precipitation is needed across the region to help reduce drought conditions and improve soil moisture.

CONSISTENT SHOWERS BENEFIT THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI

Water levels have shown some recent improvements with systems moving through areas to the north, like the Ohio River Valley. Another system is expected to move through Tuesday and again at the end of the week, providing widespread scattered rain showers. That should help to give a longer bump to the water levels, removing restrictions for transport across the Lower Mississippi for a while.

HEAVIER SHOWERS FAVOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

Fronts will continue to move through central Brazil, providing widespread, wet-season rain showers and favorable conditions for flowering to filling soybeans and developing corn. Showers will be much more limited across southern Brazil through the end of the month, but towards the beginning of January, more systems may eventually lead to scattered showers.

DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN TO ARGENTINA FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK

A front moved through central Argentina on Monday, providing spotty showers. This front will continue to lift north on Tuesday; however, after the front passes, mostly dry conditions are favored until the middle of next week. Southeastern areas may be largely missed, and this could lead to other dry areas developing.

SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY IN THE BLACK SEA THROUGH END OF DECEMBER

Wheat went dormant in good condition in the west, but poor condition in the east, particularly in southwestern Russia. The region will hope for good precipitation over the winter for when the wheat breaks dormancy in the spring. Scattered showers have been more prevalent since crops went dormant; however, the pattern looks drier to end the year and begin 2025.

SHOWERS IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA COULD SLOW HARVEST PROGRESS

The pattern continues to be drier to end the year with only limited showers, mainly across the far south and far east as a couple of systems move through. Scattered showers may disrupt the remaining wheat and canola harvest in eastern areas, but due to the spotty nature of the showers, soils could dry out for cotton and sorghum after recent rains had improved conditions.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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