DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the Midwest and another off the West Coast. A ridge developing in the Rockies trough will push the Midwest trough off the East Coast this weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The Pacific trough will move into the West this weekend and set up a few troughs to move through the U.S. the rest of November into December, keeping the pattern active.

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement for this week, but disagree on developing systems for next week. I will use a blend, but favor the GFS.

A system should move from the Southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic next week.

Areas of scattered rain and snow are forecast, but the timing, location, and intensity of the precipitation is uncertain. Cold air will spread east of the Rockies behind the system and may stick around into early December. Models are uncertain about how all this will come together, though they agree in principle.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...92 AT LA PUERTA, TX, HIDALGO, TX, AND MCALLEN, TX

LOW TUE...21 BELOW ZERO AT MACKAY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...COLUMBUS, GA 2.26 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in the Midwest and another off the West Coast. A ridge developing in the Rockies trough will push the Midwest trough off the East Coast this weekend. The Pacific trough will move into the West this weekend and set up a few troughs to move through the U.S. the rest of November into December, keeping the pattern active.

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement for this week, but disagree on developing systems for next week. I will use a blend, but favor the GFS.

A system should move from the Southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic next week.

Areas of scattered rain and snow are forecast, but the timing, location, and intensity of the precipitation is uncertain. Cold air will spread east of the Rockies behind the system and may stick around into early December. Models are uncertain about how all this will come together, though they agree in principle.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Snow and breezy winds linger on Wednesday. Another system will move through over the weekend and could produce some beneficial precipitation in spots as well. Drought is intense in much of the region, though some areas are getting some help while others fall further behind.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A system will likely miss to the north this weekend, but a couple more are possible next week, keeping the region active but eventually bringing some cold air in as well. Recent precipitation has been able to reduce drought significantly over the last few weeks, favorable for winter wheat that is starting to go dormant and should get more of a push next week.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers went through with a powerful storm earlier this week. A secondary low will form over Michigan on Wednesday, keeping showers around through the end of the week, including some bursts of snow. The pattern stays active going into December, so drought areas will get more chances for rain next week and colder air should move in at that time as well, helping to cool soil temperatures for fall fertilizer application in more areas.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (TRANSPORTATION): Water levels on the Mississippi River are still above the low mark due to recent heavy rain across the Plains and Midwest. More rain is needed in the Ohio Valley to maintain or make long-lasting improvements, but there is some potential there. A storm that lingers this week will be helpful and more systems are forecast for next week that could help as well.

BRAZIL (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Wet season showers continue in central Brazil, though they are forecast to weaken and become more isolated over the weekend. That should be brief as the showers fill back in later next week, and mostly favorable conditions continue for soybean establishment and growth.

Southern areas have seen scattered showers the last couple of days that continue through Thursday. More rain is forecast to move in during the middle of next week that should keep conditions mostly favorable as well.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Though some isolated showers may move through over the next couple of days, most areas will remain dry. Another system moves through this weekend into early next week with widespread rainfall being forecast again. Some patches are starting to dry out, and if the system misses these same areas, there could be some poor growing conditions. But overall, the weather is still mostly favorable in the country. The threat of heat and dryness due to the building La Nina may be a threat later in the season as well.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Widespread showers continue across the continent throughout the week. That will help southeastern areas that have been much drier while keeping soil moisture very high across the rest of the continent.

Though the pattern quiets down somewhat next week, additional showers and systems are still expected. Wheat is going dormant from north to south in mostly good condition, though some wet spots are not all that favorable.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Rainfall deficits continue to be very large in most the eastern half of the region. It will be more active this week with a couple of fronts bringing scattered showers through in a couple of waves, but wheat is going dormant and unable to use the rain at the moment. The region will hope for good precipitation over the winter to get a good start when the crop comes out of dormancy in the spring.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Scattered showers have increased across much of the country over the last few days, unfavorable for fieldwork and winter harvest, but good for cotton and sorghum planting and establishment. A system in the west will bring showers to the east this weekend and next week and more showers are expected to develop for the west next week.

Overall, this should improve soil moisture in a lot of areas.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Isolated shower Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday.

Isolated showers Sunday. Temperatures falling Wednesday, near normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday, above normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures below normal west and above normal east.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, near normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday, above normal Saturday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, below normal north and above normal south Tuesday-Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Friday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday, northwest Saturday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, near normal Saturday-Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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