DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across most of the U.S. with a trough in the Pacific Northwest and another developing up in Alaska. The northwest trough will push through over the next couple of days and produce a system as it does. We will be watching the Alaskan trough deepen and push into the West over the weekend into early next week, pushing the ridge to the East and producing a good setup for a storm system in the middle of the country for next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

We will probably see the trough reload in the West late next week and weekend and could produce another storm system for the middle of the country.

The U.S. and European models differ on the forecast for next week and early November. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Models are still working out how the storm system may manifest next week and there is not a lot of solid direction on how strong it will be or how widespread the coverage of precipitation will be for the middle of the country.

With how much uncertainty there is with the first system or systems for early-to-mid next week, the forecast for a late week or weekend system that comes after is also somewhat unknown. However, there is finally some potential for getting a widespread rain event or two in the middle of the country for next week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...103 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW WED...9 AT 32 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF BYNUM, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...SAULT STE. MARIE, MI 0.12 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge across most of the U.S. with a trough in the Pacific Northwest and another developing up in Alaska. The northwest trough will push through over the next couple of days and produce a system as it does, but we will be watching the Alaskan trough deepen and push into the West over the weekend into early next week, pushing the ridge to the East and producing a good setup for a storm system in the middle of the country for next week. We will probably see the trough reload in the West late next week and weekend and could produce another.

The U.S. and European models differ on the forecast for next week and early November. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Models are still working out how the storm system may manifest next week and there is not a lot of solid direction on how strong it will be or how widespread the coverage of precipitation will be for the middle of the country.

With how much uncertainty there is with the first system or systems for early-to-mid next week, the forecast for a late week or weekend system that comes after is also somewhat unknown. However, there is finally some potential for getting a widespread rain event or two in the middle of the country for next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A small system moving through on Thursday will bring some isolated showers, otherwise dry conditions continue as drought keeps building. There is potential for showers to develop with pulses of energy moving through next week, though models disagree on that potential.

Some windy conditions at times could increase the fire risk as well.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Despite some showers earlier this week, soil moisture continues to be quite low with widespread drought. Harvest conditions have been very good though. A pair of systems will move into the region next week with a much better chance for pulses of showers to move through the region that could be more substantial.

Models are working out that potential, however.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A small system will move through on Thursday and Friday with a scattered showers and small pockets of heavier rain potential. Though some showers will fall, it should not be heavy enough to build soil moisture, reduce drought, or disrupt harvest for too many areas. A storm system moving in next week could bring some waves of showers to the region that could be more meaningful.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Water levels on the Mississippi River continue to be low, causing restrictions on transportation. With very little precipitation forecast in the basin for the next week and questionable precipitation potential next week, restrictions could last a long time.

BRAZIL (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Wet season showers continue in central Brazil, being favorable for further soybean planting and establishment.

Producers have not been able to cover the gap from late planting of soybeans yet and they only have about a week left before the window closes. Rainfall has been good farther south as well, with much better progress on planting occurring there.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): An overall wetter pattern lately has reduced drought and brought moisture for filling wheat and corn establishment. There is still drought out there though, even after a system brought through some good rain over the last couple of days. The pattern is turning drier though, for a little more than a week. Based on the recent rainfall, a shorter dry stretch will not be all that harmful, but if it lasts longer than forecast, issues may start to arise again. Soybean planting will start in November and the dry stretch will not be favorable early on. More rainfall will be needed to continue reducing drought.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): It continues to be unfavorably wet in some areas in the northwest and Italy. Another system will move into western areas with more unneeded showers for Friday into the weekend, though Spain will benefit from the rain that may continue there into next week. Eastern areas have been able to recover from a wet period a couple of weeks ago but some areas would now like to see rain there for winter wheat establishment.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Rainfall deficits are very large in the east and the window for winter wheat establishment has essentially closed with frosts and freezes becoming more likely from now on. Overall drier conditions are in the forecast for the next two weeks with several fronts moving through with very limited showers and larger drops in temperatures. The region will hope for good precipitation over the winter to make up for the lost time this fall.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A front is moving through eastern areas Thursday, but with very little precipitation forecast for agricultural areas.

The same goes with another system this weekend where showers may be relegated to the Pacific Coast. Some areas are doing well while others are too dry, creating mixed conditions for filling wheat and canola.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Monday. Temperatures above normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above to well above normal Sunday-Monday.

East: Scattered showers Thursday night-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday.

Temperatures near normal Thursday, above normal Friday, near normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, above normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures above to well above normal Tuesday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers northeast Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Monday.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures above to well above normal Tuesday, near to below normal west and above normal east Wednesday-Saturday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Isolated showers north Monday. Temperatures above normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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