DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

A ridge will continue to be strong across eastern Canada, creating an overall block to the pattern. A trough in the Pacific Northwest will be deflected northward through Canada the next few days. Another will dig in behind it across the West for next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The western trough may dig far enough south to undercut the Canadian ridge a bit, drifting through the U.S. next weekend and the following week. The remnants of Francine will remain stuck underneath the ridge in the Southeast through a good portion of next week and we'll watch for the potential of another tropical storm off the Carolina coast.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the GFS.

The western trough should produce a storm system across the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies for the middle of next week. The front to that system could get pushed eastward and remain active in the western Corn Belt through the weekend. Francine's remnants will continue to drift across portions of the Southeast next week and create some showers and another tropical low may form off the Carolina Coast as well. That is all uncertain but could lead to higher precipitation coverage and totals across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic later next week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...106 AT MESA, AZ, GILA BEND, AZ, MOHAWK, AZ, FAITH RANCH AIRPORT, CA, EL CENTRO, CA, AND RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW THU...25 AT MACKAY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...JACKSONVILLE, FL 5.66 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

A ridge will continue to be strong across eastern Canada, creating an overall block to the pattern. A trough in the Pacific Northwest will be deflected northward through Canada the next few days. Another will dig in behind it across the West for next week. That one may dig far enough south to undercut the Canadian ridge a bit, drifting through the U.S. next weekend and the following week. The remnants of Francine will remain stuck underneath the ridge in the Southeast through a good portion of next week.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

The western trough should produce a storm system across the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies for the middle of next week. The front to that system could get pushed eastward and remain active in the western Corn Belt through the weekend. Francine's remnants will continue to drift across portions of the Southeast next week and create some showers and another tropical low may form off the Carolina Coast as well. That is all uncertain but could lead to higher precipitation coverage and totals across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic later next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Temperatures will be well above normal into much of next week. A system brought scattered showers into the region Thursday with some showers lingering through the weekend. Another system will develop similarly early-mid next week with more widespread precipitation that could linger longer next week and bring some needed rain to corn and soybean areas in the east that are still behind developmentally. Winds could be strong in some areas with these systems moving through, not favorable for the remaining wheat harvest.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Some drier areas in the region could use some rain for winter wheat planting and establishment. Rainfall is forecast to be limited and rather spotty going through this weekend. A cold front could provide better chances for scattered showers by the middle of next week that may linger later in the week. That could help to increase soil moisture, but delay dry down of corn and soybeans and harvest.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): The remnants of Hurricane Francine will spread some showers through the western half of the region through the weekend.

Precipitation would help bring needed moisture in for winter wheat planting later this fall, and could improve water levels on the Mississippi River, but may also disrupt the early harvest. Scattered showers are possible next week with a cold front approaching from the West, but eastern areas may remain mostly dry as drought continues to increase there.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Hurricane Francine has dumped a lot of rain in the region this week, helping to reduce drought, but also causing some areas of wind damage and flooding. Though the rain will help water levels on the Mississippi River and reduce some of the drought that has been increasing in recent weeks, it will also cause delays to harvest and produce some potential quality issues. Showers last well into next week as the remnant low meanders about the region.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/CORN/SOYBEANS): Although Francine made landfall to the west, it has produced plenty of precipitation in the region over the last few days.

Its remnant low will remain in the region through a good chunk of next week and another tropical feature is being watched off of the Carolina coast for next week as well. Continued rainfall will help to reduce the growing drought in the region, but may also cause flooding as well as damage to mature crops and delays to harvest.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): A large system is producing heavy rainfall in western areas of the region which continues on Friday. Another system will do something similar for the middle of next week and its front could linger and continue to produce showers for eastern areas later next week.

Though the rain is fine for reducing drought and increasing soil moisture for next year, it will cause delays and potential quality issues for the crop that remains out in the fields.

BRAZIL (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will linger around the southern states into the weekend with areas of scattered showers and pockets of heavy rain. That will help states like Parana and Rio Grande do Sul to improve soil moisture for any immature wheat or corn and soybean planting. Heat north of this front continues to bake soils ahead of first-crop soybean planting and soil moisture through most of central Brazil is way too low to begin planting.

Wet season rains typically do not start for another couple of weeks and may be late, which would push back planting by a couple of weeks, putting the safrinha season in jeopardy as well.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Rainfall from the mid-week front was spotty.

Most of the country continues to be dry, impacting developing winter wheat and delaying corn planting. Above-normal temperatures have been aiding the reduction of soil moisture as well. A stronger system providing more widespread showers may not arrive until the middle to end of next week, but there is uncertainty in the coverage of the showers with this system.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers have been favorable for immature corn, but not for any intentions of winter wheat planting. A system in southern Europe will continue to spin and bring showers there and across eastern Europe into next week. While rainfall will be favorable for those eastern areas, temperatures have dropped significantly and higher elevation frosts and snow will be possible, a sign of the coming season of more variable conditions.

Another system is forecast to gently move through the continent later next week with another round of widespread lighter showers.

BLACK SEA (CORN/SUNFLOWERS/WINTER WHEAT): Western areas have been seeing scattered showers as systems from central Europe nudge east. That continues through the weekend. Eastern Ukraine and western Russia, large winter wheat areas, have had very little rainfall out of it, which continues to be the case over the next couple of weeks. The window for effective winter wheat planting will be awfully short this year as frosts and freezes typically start to show up in October or early November.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A mid-week system produced spotty rainfall in the east, which was beneficial for winter wheat and canola areas that actually saw some rainfall but not beneficial for those that missed out. A front will push through the southeast this weekend, but precipitation will largely remain confined to coastal areas. Colder air will move in across southern areas, however, and some areas across Victoria and New South Wales will be watched for frosts. Meanwhile, above normal temperatures will still be favored across western areas through early next week. Another front could produce more widespread showers to eastern areas towards the end of next week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers far south. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers far southwest. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers south Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Tuesday.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Tuesday.

East: Isolated showers west through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday.

Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers west Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures above to well above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures above to well above normal Wednesday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south.

Forecast: Scattered showers Friday-Saturday, north Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated to scattered showers south Saturday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday, near to below normal south and above normal north Sunday-Monday, above normal Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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