Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Recent heat in the Corn Belt, but some showers, recent rain in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies, and a cold and dry start to South American spring are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

HEAT DECREASING IN THE MIDWEST, RAINFALL SCATTERED

Temperatures continued to be hot in much of the Midwest on Tuesday. Thunderstorms developed over a wider area than maybe was forecast, which was good news for those from northern Missouri to Michigan. Drier conditions continued in the drier sections of the south and east, though. A weak front will continue to produce some showers Wednesday for those drier areas. Another front pushes through Thursday into Saturday. That will bring more sweeping cooler temperatures through the region along with needed showers. Cooler and drier conditions will follow it through most of next week.

ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, HEAT DECREASING

Isolated showers continue to move through the Central and Southern Plains, but the heat is taking its toll on many areas that have been drier lately. A stronger front will come sweeping through the region Thursday and Friday with scattered showers, settling down into the south for the weekend where showers may continue. Temperatures behind the front will be much more comfortable for livestock and filling crops. Those across the north that do not see rainfall from the front could be drier through next week and that may take the top off of some yields without much rain in the forecast until maybe late next week with another front moving through. Soil moisture improvements would be preferred before winter wheat planting starts next month.

FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Recent showers and severe storms may have caused quality problems and delays for the wheat harvest in the Northern Plains. Another front pushes through Wednesday and Thursday with scattered showers, but it should be drier behind it through much of next week before another front moves through late week. Temperatures will go on a sort of roller coaster ride over the next couple of weeks.

HOT AND DRY DELTA AWAITING COLD FRONT

Warm and dry conditions have been an unfavorable combination for filling cotton and soybeans in the Delta. Some isolated showers may develop ahead of a cold front that will go through the region Friday and Saturday. The front will get stuck across the south this weekend, where it may produce showers into next week. Models are mixed on that prospect. Milder temperatures follow behind the front, though they will still be warm and stressful for filling crops where showers do not occur.

DAMAGING RAIN AND STRONG WINDS FOR THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A strong front and system will move across the Canadian Prairies through Thursday with scattered showers and potential strong winds that could be damaging to mature wheat, canola, and other crops waiting to be harvested. Conditions trend drier for the weekend into early next week while temperatures will be on the rise again. Another front will move through in the middle of next week with potential showers and some elevated winds as well.

BRAZIL VERY DRY TO START PLANTING SEASON

Extremely dry conditions exist in northern and central Brazil, and they would enjoy some rain before the wet season rains come in about a month. Southern areas also saw very cold temperatures move into the region recently, creating some areas of frost that could have been damaging to wheat. Warmer temperatures will arrive for the rest of the week. Another front will come through Friday through the weekend. It may not bring much precipitation, but it could drop temperatures again. However, it should not be cold enough to produce widespread frosts this time around.

COLD IN ARGENTINA, SOME NEEDED RAIN

Recent widespread frosts and freezes may have been damaging to wheat in Argentina, or at least slowed down its development. Another burst of cool air will move through at the end of the week behind another front. The front is forecast to produce some rain into the weekend, especially in Buenos Aires, an area that has had decent amounts of rain this winter. Fronts have been frequent, but rain has not. The country remains very dry and could use some rain ahead of spring corn planting, which will start up next month.

HEAT WITH LIMITED SHOWERS IN EUROPE

Temperatures continue to be very warm for most of Europe and will rise in western areas over the next couple of days as well. Another front may move in with limited showers for western areas late this week, but it likely stays hot and dry through next week, a poor combination in most areas for filling corn and other summer crops in many areas. Areas near the Mediterranean may see some isolated showers and showers may continue in the west at times through next week.

DROUGHT WORSENING IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

A small system in the Black Sea may bring a few spotty showers to southern areas for the next couple of days. Otherwise, it will be hot and dry through next week. Drought continues to expand and damage filling corn and sunflowers.

NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA COULD USE MORE RAIN

Recent scattered showers supported good growing conditions for winter wheat and canola. Several systems moving through the Southern Ocean this week will produce some showers across the south but will not penetrate farther north where it has been drier lately. A brief dry period will return to southern areas late this weekend into early next week with the return of high pressure. Temperatures will continue to be very warm except near the coast, which will cause quicker development of winter crops.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2024 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.