Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heat and risk for severe storms continue across portions of the Corn Belt today. More moisture may be on the way for the Central and Southern Plains later this week, which should help increase soil moisture ahead of wheat planting. These are the weather factors driving the markets for Tuesday.

RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR MIDWEST TODAY

Temperatures remained hot on Monday with severe storms across western areas. Warm temperatures will be maintained through the middle of the week. Another front will continue to work across the region through Wednesday. It may take out extreme heat in some spots, but also be the focus for at least some showers. The potential for widespread rainfall is low until another front pushes through Thursday and Friday. That will bring more sweeping cooler temperatures through the region along with the needed showers.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK

The heat stuck around on Monday with high temperatures in the triple digits. Limited showers will continue to be possible until a front comes through late in the week. The front should also bring in some cooler temperatures. Models are starting to show more agreement that showers will linger across the south early next week with a front stalling out. Any additional moisture would be beneficial before wheat planting gets underway this fall.

PRECIPITATION MAY DELAY WHEAT HARVEST ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers and severe storms moved through the area on Monday, which could delay progress on wheat harvest. Scattered showers will stay in the region through Thursday before a system finally pushes chances out of the region with dry conditions returning for the Labor Day weekend. Loss of quality and delays to harvest will be possible for wheat.

HOT AND DRY FOR THE DELTA UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK

Warm and dry conditions have been an unfavorable combination for filling cotton and soybeans. The hot and dry conditions are likely to last much of the week, until a front moves through Friday through the weekend. This should bring widespread showers and could linger into next week across the south. Milder temperatures will also filter into the region, much more favorable conditions for filling crops.

STRONG FRONT MOVING THROUGH CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Drier conditions returned Monday after scattered showers went through over the weekend. Another front and system will move through late Tuesday through Thursday with scattered showers and potential strong winds that could be damaging to mature wheat, canola, and other crops waiting to be harvested. Conditions trend drier for the weekend into early next week while temperatures may be on the rise again.

MORE MOISTURE NEEDED ACROSS BRAZIL

Extremely dry conditions exist in northern and central areas, and they would enjoy some rain before the wet season rains come in about a month. Southern areas also saw very cold temperatures move into the region the past few days, creating some areas of frost that could have been damaging to wheat. Warmer temperatures will arrive for the rest of the week, reducing the risk for frost. It should be dry for much of the week as well. Another front will come through Friday through the weekend. It may not bring much precipitation, but it could drop temperatures again. Models are mixed on how cold the front could be.

COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS ARGENTINA WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES

Recent widespread frosts and freezes may have been damaging to wheat, or at least slowed down its development. Cooler air will stick around through midweek with another burst of cool air by the end of the week behind another front. The front is forecast to produce some rain into the weekend with showers possibly lingering into early next week. The country remains very dry and could use some rain ahead of spring corn planting, which should start next month.

LIMITED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT EUROPE THE REST OF THIS WEEK

Temperatures continue to be very warm for most areas and will rise in western areas over the course of the week as well. Another front may move in with limited showers late this week, but it likely stays hot and dry through next week, a poor combination in most areas for filling corn. Areas near the Mediterranean may see some isolated showers.

SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE BLACK SEA

A small system is in the Black Sea, which may bring a few spotty showers to southern areas through the middle of the week. Otherwise, it will be hot and dry for the week, likely through next week as well. Drought continues to expand and damage filling corn and sunflowers.

PERIODIC SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA

Recent scattered showers supported good growing conditions for winter wheat and canola. Several systems moving through the Southern Ocean this week will produce some showers across the south but will not penetrate farther north where it has been drier lately. A brief dry period will return to southern areas late this weekend into early next week with the return of high pressure. Temperatures will continue to be very warm except near the coast, which will cause quicker development of winter crops.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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