Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A break in the heat for the U.S. Corn Belt, Tropical Storm Debby flooding the Southeast, rain for the Plains, and potential frosts for the Canadian Prairies are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

STAYING COOL AND DRIER IN THE MIDWEST

Mild air is being reinforced by another front moving through the Midwest on Thursday. Models do not produce much precipitation with the front as it moves through, keeping a lot of the region drier and cool through the weekend. Dryness would not be favorable for filling corn and soybeans, but the reduction in temperatures may offset some of the stress. The forecast for next week is questionable as some small disturbances may move through with periods of showers along the front stalled across the south, but models disagree with timing, coverage, and intensity of any rainfall. Temperatures should gradually rise throughout the week, but showers moving through may disrupt that if they occur.

MILDER AIR, SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front that moved into the Central and Southern Plains will stall out around the Kansas-Oklahoma area and be a focal point for precipitation going into next week before it lifts northward. A disturbance or two may bring showers to Nebraska next week as well. Any rainfall would certainly be helpful for filling corn and soybeans. Temperatures north of the front are very comfortable and a nice break from earlier heat while it stays hot to the south. Temperatures will be on a gradual increase next week as the front lifts northward.

COOLER AND SHOWERY FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

After a couple of dry days, more showers are possible in the Northern Plains this weekend and much of next week as a couple of little systems pass through, though models disagree on the coverage and timing. The rainfall is likely too late for the wheat crop but could be beneficial for corn and soybeans if it is not too heavy and does not cause flooding. Temperatures will continue to be cool through the weekend, gradually rising next week.

HOT AND DRY IN THE DELTA

Hot and dry conditions since last week in the Delta have caused a significant drop in soil moisture. A front moving into the region will stall out going into next week but may not produce any rain. Models disagree if there exists any significant potential for getting rain. Temperatures will be cool across the north, but still hot in the south. Temperatures should be on a gradual increase next week.

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY CONTINUES TO FLOOD CAROLINAS

Tropical Storm Debby moved back into South Carolina early Thursday morning and will spread heavy rain through the Carolinas and then up the East Coast through Friday and early Saturday. While drought is likely to be eliminated, flooding and root lodging could cause damage to a crop that had been on a nice turnaround. Drier conditions across the west with high heat are quickly reducing soil moisture. Showers may move back in toward the Gulf Coast this weekend though and are possible through much of next week in the region. That would not help the wet situation in the east, however.

POTENTIAL FROSTS IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A system continues to bring showers to Manitoba Thursday but has left a cold pocket of air in the Canadian Prairies that will last the next several days. A reduction in winds and cloud cover could lead to very patchy frosts in some areas over the next couple of mornings, it got very close in central Saskatchewan Thursday morning. Temperatures will gradually rise next week. Showers may return by the middle of next week. The recent cooler and wetter conditions would be favorable but are too late for much of the wheat and canola crops in the region that are on their way to maturity after sustaining heat and dryness in July.

STORM SYSTEM EXITING ARGENTINA

A system moved through Argentina this week, but did not produce much rainfall outside of the state of Buenos Aires, which continues to see some rain on Thursday. Dryness elsewhere is a concern as soil moisture continues to fall across much of the country. A burst of much colder air is moving through behind the system and is leading to frosts, with another burst of cooler air this weekend into early next week. Frost should not be harmful to vegetative wheat but keep growth slow.

RAIN NORTH, TEMPERATURES INCREASING IN EUROPE

A front has been going through Europe the last couple of days and another looks to go through Friday and Saturday with some more showers. Northern areas have seen the bulk of the rain this week, which continues with these two fronts as well. Poland will benefit but Germany is still too wet in a lot of areas for harvesting the remaining wheat or developing corn and other spring grains. Temperatures will rise this weekend across most of the continent, being more stressful for areas that haven't had much rain lately across the south. Northern areas appear to be active again next week.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA DROUGHT

A disturbance coming from Europe will produce a few showers for the next couple of days in the Black Sea region and a front coming through this weekend may produce a few more, but the widespread heavy rain that the region needs continues to be elusive. Above-normal temperatures have been increasing the drought stress in the region, though temperatures will fall behind the front for a couple of days next week.

SHOWERS SPREADING THROUGH MOST OF AUSTRALIA

Some areas in Queensland could use some more rain for vegetative wheat. Some showers may move off the Pacific into the region this weekend into next week that would be beneficial while a front or two scrapes through southeastern areas with some showers as well. Western areas have been more fortunate with periodic rainfall and a couple more fronts moving through this weekend and next week are bringing some more. Overall, beneficial conditions are in place for vegetative winter wheat and canola.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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