Commodities Market Impact Weather
Model Discrepancy for Next Week is Concerning
MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A break in the heat for the U.S. Corn Belt next week, but stark difference in the models on how much territory that will cover and for how long are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.
COOL BURST COMING TO MIDWEST NEXT WEEK
A front that brought severe weather to the Midwest the last couple of days continues through the east on Friday, though with low potential for severe weather. Despite the front, temperatures will continue to be hot, though showers could limit the overall highs in the east. Overnight lows will continue to be mostly in the upper 60s and 70s. A cold front will drop into far northern areas this weekend with milder air and will be pushed through the region next week as a system moves along it. Models have this front stalling either in the region or south of it, and have widely variable temperature and precipitation predictions, leading to a low-confidence forecast for next week.
UNCERTAIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
A front sagging south through the Southern Plains produced some heavy rain in the Panhandles Thursday. That area plus the High Plains have good chances for showers Friday and some isolated showers may continue over the weekend. When showers do not occur, temperatures will remain hot. A front will get pushed into the region early to mid next week, bringing a burst of mild air to help reduce the stress. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along the front as well. The front may get stuck in the region for most of next week and produce sporadic showers throughout the week. Rainfall may or may not be widespread, but any would be helpful for filling corn and soybeans. Where that front stalls out will be the key to an uncertain temperature forecast.
COOLER AND SHOWERY FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS
A front drops into the Northern Plains over the weekend and will be pushed through early next week. The front should bring scattered showers through the region. Another may develop for the middle of next week and showers may persist next weekend. Temperatures have been warm to hot in some areas but will drop behind the front this weekend and continue to be below normal through next week. The rainfall is likely too late for the wheat crop but could be beneficial for corn and soybeans if it does not cause flooding.
HOT AND DRY IN THE DELTA
A front moving through the Delta this weekend could produce isolated showers but will leave most areas dry. Instead, temperatures remain high and stressful. Soil moisture is currently favorable in much of the region that could help sustain through the heat, but it is declining. A stronger cold front is forecast to move into the region in the middle of next week, which should bring some relief to the temperatures and potential for some showers, but models are unsure of how far south this front gets. If it stays north, hot and dry conditions will continue to stress filling crops.
COOLER WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS FOR THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
Despite some fronts moving through the Canadian Prairies this week, showers have been very isolated and light, a trend that continues into the weekend. Temperatures have been warmer as well. Soil moisture continues to decline and is becoming critical for wheat and canola in a lot of areas. Milder air will move in behind a cold front this weekend and another burst of mild air moves across next week. The system that pushes the front south early next week could bring a burst of better rainfall but should also miss some areas. Depending on the model, showers may continue through much of next week and weekend, but confidence on that is low. Temperatures are likely to be below normal regardless of which model wins out.
ARGENTINA MAY BE WETTER NEXT WEEK
Dryness in Argentina continues to be a concern for winter wheat in the short term and for the coming corn and soybean crops in the long term. Another front moves through Friday into the weekend but forecast rainfall will be patchy and lighter than the country needs. Another system could help out with that in the middle of next week, but forecasts have changed to have that system move out after a day or two instead of sticking around.
NORTHERN EUROPE TARGETED WITH MORE RAIN
A small disturbance will continue to move through eastern Europe over the next couple of days, getting some rain into needed areas in the southeast. That system also brought more rain into France and Germany that did not need it. Several more fronts are lining up to move through this weekend and next week, with the focus for showers occurring mostly in the north. Northeastern areas could use the rain while northwestern areas continue to be unfavorably wet.
LIMITED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA DROUGHT
A disturbance moving through Europe will bring some showers to the Black Sea region this weekend into early next week. Rain may occur for some lucky areas but will not be the widespread heavy rain that the region needs. Temperatures continue to be warm and cause drought and stress.
DRIER IN NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA
Soil moisture in much of Queensland has been falling and rain is needed here for vegetative wheat and canola. A disturbance could bring some limited showers early next week. Western areas have been more fortunate with periodic rainfall and a couple more fronts moving through next week should bring more.
John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com
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