DTN Ag Weather Brief
DTN Ag Weather Brief
There is a trough in the Midwest and a ridge building in the Southern Plains and West. The trough continues east while the ridge becomes dominant in the West. Another trough is moving from northern Canada to Hudson Bay over the next few days as well. That trough will put pressure on the ridge for next week and take over most of central Canada and portions of the East.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:The trough is likely to be temporary, lifting out next weekend or early the following week, but brings some dramatically different weather to the country.
The U.S. and European models are fairly similar with the setup, but the European has gone back to being somewhat warmer than the GFS and they have different precipitation presentations. I will use a blend.
A front will push through the Corn Belt next week, bringing a burst of milder air and scattered showers to most areas east of the Rockies. A system may form late week along that front and bring more showers through the Corn Belt. The Southeast U.S. will also be watching the potential for a tropical system this weekend into early next week.
NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:HIGH WED...117 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA
LOW WED...27 AT MACKAY, ID
24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...DES MOINES, IA 3.47 INCHES
US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:There is a trough in the Midwest and a ridge building in the Southern Plains and West. The trough continues east while the ridge becomes dominant in the West. Another trough is moving from northern Canada to Hudson Bay over the next few days as well. That trough will put pressure on the ridge for next week and take over most of central Canada and portions of the East. This is likely to be temporary with the trough lifting out next weekend or early the following week but brings some dramatically different weather to the country.
The U.S. and European models are fairly similar with the setup, but the European has gone back to being somewhat warmer than the GFS and they have different precipitation presentations. I will use a blend.
A front will push through the Corn Belt next week, bringing a burst of milder air and scattered showers to most areas east of the Rockies. A system may form late week along that front and bring more showers through the Corn Belt. The Southeast U.S. will also be watching the potential for a tropical system this weekend into early next week.
MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers fell across the Dakotas this week, but western areas did not see much precipitation, being unfavorably dry and warm. Another front drops into the region over the weekend and will be pushed through early next week, the front should bring scattered showers through the region. Another may develop for the middle of next week.
Temperatures have been warm to hot in some areas, but will drop behind the front this weekend into next week with a period of much milder temperatures for next week.
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): With a couple of fronts moving through this week, some showers have been moving through, but coverage has been low. Kansas has fared better than other areas. Isolated showers will be possible through the weekend. Temperatures have been and continue to be hot and stressful, reducing soil moisture and crop health. A front will get pushed into the region next week, bringing a burst of mild air into the region to help reduce the stress. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along the front as well. The front may get stuck in the region for most of next week and produce sporadic showers throughout the week.
MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front that brought severe weather across the west on Wednesday continues through the east through Friday, bringing scattered clusters of showers and thunderstorms and potential severe weather. Despite the front, temperatures will continue to be hot. Though showers could limit the overall highs, overnight lows will continue to be mostly in the upper 60s and 70s. A cold front will drop into far northern areas this weekend with milder air and will be pushed through the region next week. Showers will occur along this front as well. Despite all the chances for showers, it will come in clusters and some areas are going to be missed. Those that are missed will see declining soil moisture and crop conditions.
DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A front moving through the Corn Belt is unlikely to bring showers to much of the region through the weekend, though some isolated showers are possible. Instead, temperatures are high and stressful. Soil moisture is currently favorable in much of the region that could help sustain through the heat, but it will be declining. A stronger cold front is forecast to move into the region in the middle of next week, which should bring some relief to the temperatures and potential for some showers.
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CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Despite some fronts moving through the region this week, showers have been very isolated and light, a trend that continues into the weekend. Temperatures are warmer, though potential for extreme heat is low with the fronts passing through. Soil moisture continues to decline and is becoming critical for wheat and canola in their critical stages of reproduction and fill. Milder air will move in behind a cold front this weekend and another burst of mild air moves across next week. The system that pushes the front south early next week could bring a burst of better rainfall, but should also miss some areas.
BRAZIL (WINTER WHEAT): Another front will move into southern areas this weekend with showers into next week. This increase in shower frequency across the south is better as the region has endured long stretches of dryness over the winter bounded by heavy rain. Some flooding may occur though as the front sticks around for much of next week. Wheat could use more consistent lighter rain as it gets closer to flowering after late planting.
ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Dryness continues to be a concern for winter wheat in the short term and for the coming corn and soybean crops in the long term.
Another front moves through Friday into the weekend, but forecast rainfall will be patchy and lighter than the country needs. Another system could help out with that in the middle of next week as it is forecast to settle over the country for a few days.
EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Southeastern areas continue to deal with heat and dryness concerns for small grains and cotton despite some irregular precipitation over the last few weeks. Spain and Italy have also been unfavorably dry for their summer crop prospects. A small disturbance will continue to move through central Europe very slowly over the next few days, getting some rain into needed areas but also brought more rain into France and Germany that do not need it. Several more fronts are lining up to move through this weekend and next week, with the focus for showers occurring mostly in the north.
Northeastern areas could use the rain while northwestern areas continue to be unfavorably wet.
BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): Very limited showers have moved through the region early this week, but were light if they occurred at all and coverage has been low. A disturbance moving through Europe will bring some additional showers this weekend into early next week. Rain may occur for some lucky areas, but will not be the widespread heavy rain that the region needs.
Temperatures continue to be warm and cause drought and stress.
AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Soil moisture in much of Queensland has been falling and rain is needed here for vegetative wheat and canola. A disturbance could bring some limited showers early next week. Western areas have been more fortunate with periodic rainfall and a couple more fronts moving through next week should bring more.
EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)
Summary:
West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.
East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.
Forecast:
West: Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers north Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, below normal north and above normal south Monday.
East: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday.
6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.
Temperatures below normal north and above normal south Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Saturday.
Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)
Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.
Forecast: Isolated showers through Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday.
6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near to below normal north and above normal south Wednesday-Saturday.
Brazil Soybeans and Corn...
Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...
Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.
Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers south Saturday-Monday.
Temperatures above to well above normal through Monday.
Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...
Summary: Dry. Temperatures above normal.
Forecast: Dry through Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday.
John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com
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