Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A hotter forecast for the U.S. Corn Belt, and hotter and drier conditions for the Northern Plains, Canadian Prairies, and Black Sea are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

TEMPERATURES INCREASING FOR THE MIDWEST

A front produced limited showers in the Midwest this week that continue on Thursday. Only small areas have seen moderate to heavy amounts. Temperatures will gradually rise this weekend ahead of the next front that will move through with more showers early next week. Another front moves through a few days later with potential for more mid-late next week. Models are producing scattered showers and potential for severe weather with both fronts, but showers are widely scattered, and some areas are bound to be missed. Most areas are in good shape at the moment, but the pockets of the region missed by the incoming rain could lead to dryness concerns for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans, especially with temperatures becoming hot next week.

HOTTER AND DRIER IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Conditions have become drier, and temperatures are rising in the Central and Southern Plains. A front moving in this weekend and early next week could provide scattered showers, though models are focusing efforts to the north and east. Another mostly dry front will move through mid-next week. Temperatures will continue to slowly climb and are forecast to be consistently hot next week. The situation was fairly positive for most areas of the region, but the turn to hotter and drier could start to have an impact on reproductive to filling corn and soybeans.

HOT WITH LIMITED SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Heat is spreading through most of the Northern Plains Thursday, but a cold front will move into the region on Friday that will cut down the intensity for the weekend. The front will be slow to move out until Sunday. Models produce precipitation along the front, but nothing overly heavy or widespread. Another front could produce some showers mid next week with another late next week. Though fronts are coming through, temperatures are still forecast to be above normal next week while shower potential is low. Some issues with dryness and heat will be possible for wheat especially, but also for corn and soybeans. The warmth is somewhat needed for corn and soybeans that had a cool and late start to planting and early development, but they could use some more rain to go along with it.

RAIN CONTINUES IN THE DELTA

Scattered showers will continue to move through the Delta as an upper-level low slowly moves through this weekend. With the flow shifting to the south this weekend and fronts moving across the north next week, showers may continue but will probably be limited. Most areas have seen and will see good rain, though some areas may have issues with localized flooding if they get hit by multiple thunderstorms over the next few days.

HOT WITH LIMITED SHOWERS FOR THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

An upper-level ridge has been reluctant to move out of the Canadian Prairies and has brought heat over the last couple of weeks, especially to Alberta. The ridge is finally getting pushed eastward as a trough in British Columbia slowly moves into the region, bringing better chances for rain to northern Alberta but only sporadic showers farther south and east through the weekend. Dryness is becoming more of a concern with the continued heat and lack of consistent rainfall, unfavorable for wheat and canola in their critical reproductive stages of growth. The heat will likely take a couple of days break this weekend, but the region will be on the edge of the ridge next week, which could lead to building heat again, but also the potential for more periods of showers. Models do not have much in the forecast, however.

FEW SHOWERS IN ARGENTINA

Most winter wheat areas in Argentina are unfavorably dry, even after some rain fell in a few spots this week. Dryness has become a major concern for the wheat crop in the short term and the coming corn and soybean crops in the long term. Northern areas will see another front move through this weekend with another chance for limited showers, but the dry spell continues until possibly late next week, when models are more keen to widespread showers moving through with another front.

MORE RAIN MOVING THROUGH WESTERN EUROPE

A system brought widespread showers to Europe this week, unfavorable to those in France and Germany where it is too wet, but relief to eastern areas that have been too dry. The southeast has been dealing with frequent hot and dry conditions but some rain and a brief reprieve from the heat was welcome. Another front moves into western areas Friday through this weekend with more unneeded showers for France and Germany. A couple of disturbances next week could bring more showers through. Spain and Italy will be much drier and could negatively affect crops there. Temperatures are more moderate but southeastern areas continue to deal with heat stress when showers do not occur.

BLACK SEA REGION CONTINUES TO DEAL WITH DROUGHT

Hot and dry conditions continue to plague the eastern half of Ukraine and most of southwestern Russia where drought is widespread and affecting corn and soybean development. A system moving through eastern Europe will catch western areas with showers the next couple of days as it moves into the Black Sea. But eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia will remain unfavorably dry. Another system moving in early next week may have some staying power in the region, sitting overhead with scattered showers throughout most of the week and could be a boon to some local areas. But this will not be the widespread heavy rain that the region needs. Temperatures remain near to above normal until that system moves in and will still be near normal with it overhead. Cooler and wetter weather is needed quickly, but damage is being done to both corn and sunflowers.

SHOWERS FAVORING WESTERN, SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA

Northeastern Australia could use more rain, but conditions are not critical yet. A front is moving through eastern areas and will bring showers into Queensland through the weekend where they are needed but could be too isolated to hit all locations with needed rain. More fronts are lining to move through next week but are favoring western and far southern areas with rain.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2024 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.