Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Parts of the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin may see scattered, severe storms this weekend into early next week. Conditions remain too wet for parts of northwest Europe and southern Brazil with showers continuing through early next week. Argentina also remains dry through the middle of next week. These are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND IN THE MIDWEST

Some areas in the eastern Midwest received localized wind damage and heavy rain from remnants of Beryl earlier this week. Periods of showers and storms are likely throughout the region into early next week, but some areas may stay mostly dry. A few storms could be strong to severe this weekend. Warmer temperatures will arrive through the weekend into early next week as high temperatures approach the upper 80s to low 90s. Drier and cooler conditions may develop throughout next week across the region after a strong cold front moves through.

HOT TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL PLAINS

Remnants of Beryl left wet conditions in the Southeast Plains. Showers will remain isolated across the Central Plains into early next week and some areas across Kansas and Oklahoma could use more moisture. Conditions trend warmer this weekend, with temperatures remaining above normal across the Central Plains into early next week. Temperatures will be more seasonable in Texas. Isolated to scattered showers and storms return to the Central and Southern Plains during the second half of next week and cooler temperatures will also arrive.

SEVERE STORMS FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Some areas of the Northern Plains received drier conditions this week which helped soils dry out after late June's heavy rainfall. Through the weekend and into the middle of next week, a few systems from Canada or the Northern Rockies could slide into the region. Some strong to severe storms may accompany showers this weekend. Conditions remain generally favorable for developing crops, but storms could provide localized heavy rainfall and damaging winds. Drier conditions may return late next week. Above normal temperatures will persist through this weekend with cooler temperatures returning next week.

WARMER ACROSS THE DELTA THIS WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS

Heavy rain from Beryl helped relieve drought in northern Arkansas this week while leaving parts of Missouri too wet. Pop-up, daytime showers and storms remain possible throughout the region into early next week. Warmer temperatures will build across northern areas this weekend. Temperatures will likely remain above normal for northern and central areas into early next week. Scattered showers become more likely across Central and Southern later next week with a cold front stalling out. The active pattern could lead to some fields of soybeans being too wet as beans continue to set pods.

MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS WEEKEND

Warmer temperatures are helping canola and wheat grow, especially across western areas of the Canadian Prairies. Above normal temperatures in western areas will persist into early next week, but temperatures will remain more seasonable farther east. Rounds of scattered showers and storms may develop this weekend and early next week as pieces of energy from a system near Alaska break off and dip south. With the warmer temperatures lingering into next week, areas that miss showers may see drought conditions expand, especially as conditions trend drier later next week.

DRIER CONDITIONS IN SIGHT FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL NEXT WEEK

With areas in southern Brazil still recovering from recent heavy rainfall, winter wheat planting and development are behind. Wet conditions will continue across southern Brazil through early next week with conditions finally trending drier for the second half of next week. Central Brazil will remain drier and warmer. While temperatures will remain cool in southern Brazil this weekend, the risk of frost is minimal.

WHEAT IN ARGENTINA COULD USE MORE MOISTURE

Cold and dry conditions have plagued Argentina and soil moisture across the country is low for winter wheat establishment. High pressure will keep conditions mostly dry into the middle of next week. Cold temperatures will continue into this weekend with any widespread frosts also being unfavorable for wheat. By late next week, better chances for scattered showers may arrive with a cold front sweeping through.

DRIER CONDITIONS ON THE HORIZON FOR NORTHWEST EUROPE NEXT WEEK

Wet conditions remain a concern across Germany and France as producers try to harvest wheat between showers. A few more systems and fronts will move through northwest Europe through early next week, bringing unwanted rain to wet areas in France and Germany, but beneficial showers elsewhere outside of the southeast. The southeast is much hotter and drier and needs more moisture. The pattern is not favorable for turning this around. Conditions may trend drier in western Europe later next week.

WESTERN BLACK SEA COULD SEE RAIN LATE NEXT WEEK

The main storm track has stayed north of the Black Sea region this week and that may continue into early next week. Large rainfall deficits still remain a concern this season. By late next week, western areas could see better chances for rain which may benefit the corn crop but rainfall is too late to benefit the wheat.

SHOWERS STILL LOOKING CONSISTENT FOR AUSTRALIA INTO NEXT WEEK

Isolated showers continue in southern Australia through the weekend and early next week. A cold airmass will build across the east and linger through much of next week. Low temperatures could approach freezing, lending to a risk for frost in parts of New South Wales. Another front could move into Western Australia by the middle of next week and provide widespread showers. Overall, crops and soil moisture are in fair condition but could use more consistent rain in the months ahead.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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