Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -– Remnants of Beryl have finally exited the main growing areas of the U.S. and some spotty showers and storms will remain possible in the Plains and Midwest into the end of this week. Conditions remain too wet for parts of northwest Europe and southern Brazil while dry and hot conditions continue near the Black Sea. These are the weather factors driving the markets for Thursday.

SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE MIDWEST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND

Eastern areas of the Midwest saw pockets of heavy rain as remnants of Beryl moved through on Tuesday and Wednesday. The rain may be wanted for some areas that have had drought conditions lately. The western Midwest will see periods of showers and storms into early next week, but some areas may stay mostly dry. A few storms could be strong to severe this weekend. Temperatures will start to trend above normal by late this week in western areas. By late this weekend into early next week, high temperatures will approach the upper 80s to low 90s for much of the region.

WARMER CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND

Some areas are experiencing flooding in the Southeast Plains after soaking rains from remnants of Hurricane Beryl. Showers will remain isolated across the Central Plains into early next week and some areas across Kansas could use more moisture. The heaviest precipitation over the next five days will favor coastal and southern Texas. Conditions trend warmer this weekend, with temperatures remaining above normal across the Central Plains into the middle of next week. Temperatures will be more seasonable in Texas.

PERIODIC SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Isolated showers remain possible through the end of this week, but some areas may stay completely dry. Through the weekend and into early next week, a few systems from Canada or the Northern Rockies could slide into the region. Some strong to severe storms may accompany showers this weekend. Above normal temperatures will persist into early next week with a slight cool down possible later next week.

WARMER ACROSS THE DELTA THIS WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS

Remnants of Beryl left behind areas of flooding throughout the Central and Southern Delta early this week with some locations reporting 2-4 inches of rain since Monday. Pop-up, daytime showers and storms remain possible throughout the region into early next week, but some areas across northern Arkansas and southern Missouri are in need of drier conditions after the recent heavy rainfall. Warmer temperatures will build across northern areas this weekend. Temperatures will likely remain above normal for northern and central areas into early next week.

HIT OR MISS SHOWERS FOR THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Warmer temperatures are helping canola and wheat grow, especially across western areas. Above normal temperatures in western areas will persist into early next week, but temperatures will remain more seasonable farther east. Rounds of scattered showers may develop this weekend and early next week as pieces of energy from a system near Alaska break off and dip south. With the warmer temperatures, areas that miss showers this weekend and early next week may see drought conditions expand.

SOUTHERN BRAZIL BATTLING WET CONDITIONS

Rain showers have been persistent in southern areas this week. More moderate to heavy showers are forecast for southern Brazil into early next week, which are not needed in the state of Rio Grande do Sul that is still recovering from flooding. Winter wheat planting and development are behind, and this will not help. Safrinha corn harvest is likely continuing across central areas with drier conditions persisting. Rain coming to southern areas will slow down what remains. While cooler air lingers in southern Brazil through this weekend, temperatures are not expected to get low enough to cause widespread frosts.

ARGENTINA REMAINS COLD AND DRY

Cold and dry conditions have plagued Argentina and soil moisture across the country is low for winter wheat establishment. High pressure will keep conditions mostly dry into the middle of next week. Cold temperatures will continue into this weekend with widespread frosts also being unfavorable for wheat.

NORTHWEST EUROPE STILL DODGING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WHEAT HARVEST

Wet conditions remain a concern across Germany and France as producers try to harvest wheat between showers. A few more systems and fronts will move through northwest Europe into early this weekend, bringing unwanted rain to wet areas in France and Germany, but beneficial showers elsewhere outside of the southeast. The southeast is much hotter and drier and has had issues with wildfires and drought as well. The pattern is not favorable for turning this around. Conditions may trend drier in western Europe later next week.

DRY AND WARM NEAR THE BLACK SEA

Isolated showers will continue across the Black Sea region into early next week, but the main storm track will stay north of the region. Dryness and drought continue to expand in most areas and even those that have seen rain recently still have large rainfall deficits this season. Little relief in the hot temperatures will also lend to additional stress on the corn and sunflower crop.

COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN TO EASTERN AUSTRALIA NEXT WEEK

Widespread showers moved into Western Australia on Tuesday, providing more moisture for wheat and canola establishment. These showers will shift east through the end of the week but become more isolated as they reach eastern Australia. Isolated showers continue in southern areas through the weekend. A cold airmass will build across the east and linger through much of next week. Low temperatures could approach freezing, lending to a risk for frost in parts of New South Wales. Overall, crops and soil moisture are in fair condition but could use more consistent rain in the months ahead.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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