Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Remnants of Beryl have left some spots across the Delta and Midwest too wet with the recent heavy rainfall while other areas welcomed the needed moisture. Risks of frost in Argentina, flooding in southern Brazil, and wet conditions in northwest Europe are also weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

HEAVY RAIN FOR SOME AREAS OF THE MIDWEST AS REMNANTS OF BERYL EXIT

Eastern areas saw pockets of heavy rain as remnants of Beryl moved through Tuesday. The rain may be wanted for some areas that have had drought conditions lately. The western Midwest will see periods of showers into early next week, but some areas may stay mostly dry. Temperatures will start to trend above normal by late this week in western areas. By late this weekend into early next week, high temperatures will approach the upper 80s to low 90s for much of the region.

SOME OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS COULD USE MORE MOISTURE

Some areas are experiencing flooding in the Southeast Plains after soaking rains from remnants of Hurricane Beryl. Showers will remain isolated across the Central Plains into early next week and some areas across Kansas could use more moisture. The heaviest precipitation over the next five days will favor coastal and southern Texas. Conditions trend warmer by this weekend, with temperatures remaining above normal across the Central Plains into the middle of next week. Temperatures will be more seasonal in Texas.

WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Isolated showers remain possible through the second half of this week, but some areas may stay completely dry. Through the weekend and into early next week, a few systems from Canada or the Northern Rockies could slide into the region. Temperatures are beginning to trend upward for the rest of this week with above normal temperatures persisting into early next week.

AREAS OF FLOODING IN THE DELTA AFTER BERYL MOVED THROUGH

Remnants of Beryl left behind areas of flooding throughout the Central and Southern Delta early this week with some locations reporting 2-4 inches of rain since Monday. Pop-up, daytime showers and storms remain possible throughout the region into early next week, but some areas across northern Arkansas and southern Missouri are in need of drier conditions after the recent heavy rainfall. One more day of cooler temperatures is expected with warmer temperatures building across northern areas this weekend. Temperatures will likely remain above normal for northern and central areas into early next week.

WARMER TEMPERATURES FAVORABLE FOR THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Warmer temperatures are helping canola and wheat grow, especially across western areas. Above to well above normal temperatures in western areas will persist into early next week, but temperatures will remain more seasonable farther east. Rounds of scattered showers may develop this weekend and early next week as pieces of energy from a system near Alaska break off and dip south. Hit and miss showers and warmer conditions are allowing some areas to dry out after the recent active weather pattern during the end of June.

NO BREAKS IN THE RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Rain showers have been persistent in southern areas this week. More moderate to heavy showers are forecast for southern Brazil into early next week, which are not needed in the state of Rio Grande do Sul that is still recovering from flooding. Winter wheat planting and development are behind and this will not help. Safrinha corn harvest is likely continuing across central areas with drier conditions persisting. Rain coming to southern areas will slow down what remains. While cooler air lingers in southern Brazil through this weekend, temperatures are not expected to get low enough to cause widespread frosts.

COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS UNFAVORABLE FOR CROPS IN ARGENTINA

Cold and dry conditions have plagued Argentina and soil moisture across the country continues to be low for winter wheat establishment. High pressure will keep conditions dry into early next week with only slight chances for isolated showers returning towards the middle of next week. Cold temperatures will continue into this weekend with widespread frosts also being unfavorable for wheat.

SLOW PROGRESS FOR WHEAT HARVEST IN NORTHWEST EUROPE

Wet conditions remain a concern across Germany and France as producers try to harvest wheat between showers. Several more systems and fronts will move through northwest Europe into early this weekend, bringing unwanted rain to wet areas in France and Germany, but beneficial showers elsewhere outside of the southeast. The southeast is much hotter and drier and has had issues with wildfires and drought as well. The pattern is not favorable for turning this around.

ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE BLACK SEA MAY NOT BE ENOUGH

Isolated showers will continue across the region into early next week, but the main storm track will stay north of the region. Dryness and drought continue to expand in most areas and even those that have seen rain recently still have large rainfall deficits this season. Little relief in the hot temperatures will also lend to additional stress on the corn and sunflower crop.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN AUSTRALIA

Widespread showers moved into Western Australia on Tuesday, providing more moisture for wheat and canola establishment. These showers will shift east through the end of the week, but become more isolated as they reach eastern Australia. Isolated showers continue in southern areas through the weekend but a cold airmass will build across the east and linger through much of next week. Overall, crops and soil moisture are in fair condition but could use more consistent rain in the months ahead.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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