DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

A trough from the Central U.S. is nudging into the East. A ridge continues to expand throughout the West. Another ridge is in the Western Atlantic. As the ridge in the Western Atlantic strengthens, the trough entering the East will weaken Thursday and Friday. The ridge in the West will provide drier conditions to the Plains and Western Corn Belt through Friday.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Even with the ridge from the West expanding into Central this weekend, a few systems from southern Canada could provide some scattered showers and storms to the Midwest into early next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend.

Through the first half of next week, a trough will build across eastern Canada and extend into the Midwest, providing more opportunities for scattered showers to the Ohio Valley. Another ridge could build across the North-Central U.S. late next week, providing drier and warmer conditions. Temperatures are forecast to be above normal for much of the country this weekend into early next week. Towards the middle to end of next week, temperatures will turn more seasonal in the Midwest.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...127 AT 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TECOPA, CA AND DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW TUE...29 AT PETER SINKS, UT

4-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...LITTLE ROCK, AR 3.44 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

A trough from the Central U.S. is nudging into the East. A ridge continues to expand throughout the West. Another ridge is in the Western Atlantic. As the ridge in the Western Atlantic strengthens, the trough entering the East will weaken Thursday and Friday. The ridge in the West will provide drier conditions to the Plains and Western Corn Belt through Friday.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend.

Even with the ridge from the West expanding into Central this weekend, a few systems from southern Canada could provide some scattered showers and storms to the Midwest into early next week. Through the first half of next week, a trough will build across eastern Canada and extend into the Midwest, providing more opportunities for scattered showers to the Ohio Valley. Another ridge could build across the North-Central U.S. late next week, providing drier and warmer conditions. Temperatures are forecast to be above normal for much of the country this weekend into early next week. Toward the middle to end of next week, temperatures will turn more seasonal in the Midwest.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Isolated showers remain possible through the second half of this week, but some areas may stay completely dry. Through the weekend and into early next week, a few systems from Canada or the Northern Rockies could slide into the region. Temperatures are beginning to trend upward for the rest of this week with above normal temperatures persisting into early next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some areas are experiencing flooding in the Southeast Plains after soaking rains from remnants of Hurricane Beryl. Showers will remain isolated across the Central Plains into early next week and some areas across Kansas could use more moisture. The heaviest precipitation over the next five days will favor coastal and southern Texas. Conditions trend warmer by this weekend, with temperatures remaining above normal across the Central Plains into the middle of next week.

Temperatures will be more seasonal in Texas.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Eastern areas saw pockets of heavy rain as remnants of Beryl moved through on Tuesday. The rain may be wanted for some areas that have had drought conditions lately. The western Midwest will see periods of showers into early next week, but some areas may stay mostly dry.

Temperatures will start to trend above normal by late this week in western areas. By late this weekend into early next week, high temperatures will approach the upper 80s to low 90s for much of the region.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Remnants of Beryl left behind areas of flooding throughout the Central and Southern Delta early this week with some locations reporting 2-4 inches of rain since Monday. Pop-up, daytime showers and storms remain possible throughout the region into early next week, but some areas across northern Arkansas and southern Missouri are in need of drier conditions after the recent heavy rainfall. One more day of cooler temperatures is expected with warmer temperatures building across northern areas this weekend.

Temperatures will likely remain above normal for northern and central areas into early next week.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Warmer temperatures are helping canola and wheat grow, especially across western areas. Above to well above normal temperatures in western areas will persist into early next week, but temperatures will remain more seasonable farther east. Rounds of scattered showers may develop this weekend and early next week as pieces of energy from a system near Alaska break off and dip south. Hit and miss showers and warmer conditions are allowing some areas to dry out after the recent active weather pattern during the end of June.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Rain showers have been persistent in southern areas this week. More moderate to heavy showers are forecast for southern Brazil into early next week, which are not needed in the state of Rio Grande do Sul that is still recovering from flooding. Winter wheat planting and development are behind and this will not help. Safrinha corn harvest is likely continuing across central areas with drier conditions persisting. Rain coming to southern areas will slow down what remains. While cooler air lingers in southern Brazil through this weekend, temperatures are not expected to get low enough to cause widespread frosts.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Cold and dry conditions have plagued Argentina and soil moisture across the country continues to be low for winter wheat establishment. High pressure will keep conditions dry into early next week with only slight chances for isolated showers returning towards the middle of next week. Cold temperatures will continue into this weekend with widespread frosts also being unfavorable for wheat.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Wet conditions remain a concern across Germany and France as producers try to harvest wheat between showers. Several more systems and fronts will move through northwest Europe into early this weekend, bringing unwanted rain to wet areas in France and Germany, but beneficial showers elsewhere outside of the southeast. The southeast is much hotter and drier and has had issues with wildfires and drought as well. The pattern is not favorable for turning this around.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): Isolated showers will continue across the region into early next week, but the main storm track will stay north of the region. Dryness and drought continue to expand in most areas and even those that have seen rain recently still have large rainfall deficits this season.

Little relief in the hot temperatures will also lend to additional stress on the corn and sunflower crop.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Widespread showers moved into Western Australia on Tuesday, providing more moisture for wheat and canola establishment. These showers will shift east through the end of the week, but become more isolated as they reach eastern Australia. Isolated showers continue in southern areas through the weekend but a cold airmass will build across the east and linger through much of next week. Overall, crops and soil moisture are in fair condition but could use more consistent rain in the months ahead.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday-Friday.

Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to below normal north and above normal south Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal north and below normal south.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday, favoring northern areas.

Temperatures below normal Wednesday, below normal south and near normal north Thursday-Saturday, near normal Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers far south. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south.

Forecast: Scattered showers far south through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Temperatures above normal north and below normal south through Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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