Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heavy rain is possible throughout parts of the Mississippi Valley and eastern Midwest this week with remnants of Hurricane Beryl moving northeast. Dry conditions continue for Argentina and the Black Sea with wet weather in northwest Europe and southern Brazil. These are the weather factors driving the markets for Monday.

DROUGHT RELIEF FOR EASTERN MIDWEST BY MIDWEEK

Scattered showers were seen across much of the Midwest this weekend as a system from southern Canada advanced east. Eastern areas of the region will need to watch for the remnants of Hurricane Beryl that may bring some heavy rain if it moves that far north. The rain may be wanted for some areas that have had drought conditions lately. Cooler air will persist through much of this week before temperatures increase by the weekend. Western areas will see some more appreciable breaks in rainfall later this week but another system from southern Canada could provide some scattered showers to the area late this weekend into early next week.

FLOODING RISK FOR SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK

Hurricane Beryl made landfall between Corpus Christi and Houston, Texas, early this morning and is expected to quickly weaken but shift northeast early this week. A swath of intense rainfall is likely across eastern Texas and Oklahoma. Behind it, some isolated showers and below normal temperatures will linger as the trough across the Central U.S. slowly weakens this week. Conditions trend drier and warmer by this weekend.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Sporadic showers impacted the Dakotas over the weekend. Southeastern South Dakota, which had massive flooding in June, has so far escaped the heavy rain, but other areas have seen it instead. Eastern areas will continue to see daily chances for showers early this week with showers waning later in the week with the return of high pressure. Temperatures will be near or below normal through the middle of the week with warmer temperatures returning later in the week.

HEAVY RAIN FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELTA

A relief from the recent heat came this weekend with a trough in the Central U.S. providing cooler temperatures. The remnants of Hurricane Beryl could provide a swath of heavy rainfall to central and southern areas early this week as the remnants combine with the trough. Some areas that are too dry could end up being too wet by the middle of this week. Temperatures will be seasonable this week with warmth building across northern areas by early next week.

RISK OF HOT TEMPERATURES FOR THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Scattered showers persist in the eastern Canadian Prairies through the first half of the week with mostly dry conditions in western areas. Above to well above normal temperatures in western areas will expand east throughout the week with warm conditions likely persisting into early next week. Another round of rain may develop this weekend as a trough passes through the region. The drier and warmer combination is a good one for many areas that have adequate to surplus soil moisture and slower crop development.

HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL THREATENS WHEAT

A front will linger across southern Brazil this week. Areas of heavy rain are forecast, which are not needed in the state of Rio Grande do Sul which is still recovering from flooding. Winter wheat planting and development are behind and this will not help. Safrinha corn harvest continues in earnest across the country and is well ahead of schedule. Rain coming to southern areas will slow down what remains. Colder air moving in behind the front may cause some frosts but that is not expected to cause any damage.

DRY AND COOL IN ARGENTINA THIS WEEK

Soil moisture across Argentina continues to be low for winter wheat establishment. High pressure will keep conditions dry throughout this week and possibly into early next week. Cold temperatures will continue through this week with widespread frosts also being unfavorable for wheat. Hard freezes that would cause damage are unlikely though.

STORM TRACK FAVORING NORTHERN AND WESTERN EUROPE

Pockets of heavy rain recently moved through France and Germany where it was not welcome but have also spread to other areas of Europe where it was. Several more systems and fronts will move through the continent this week, bringing unwanted rain to wet areas in France and Germany, but beneficial showers elsewhere outside of the southeast. The southeast is much hotter and drier and has had issues with wildfires and drought as well. The pattern is not favorable for turning this around.

BLACK SEA STILL DEALING WITH RAINFALL DEFICITS

Showers became more isolated across eastern areas of the Black Sea region this weekend. Isolated showers will continue across the region this week, but the main storm track will stay north of the region. Dryness and drought continue to expand in most areas and even those that have seen rain recently still have large rainfall deficits this season. Hot temperatures this week will only exacerbate the stress on developing summer crops.

CONSISTENT SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA THIS WEEK

Most areas are in good shape for vegetative winter wheat and canola. Eastern Australia saw beneficial rains this weekend with showers lingering into early this week. The next front moves into the west early this week and spreads eastward with more showers reaching the southeast by late this week. Overall, things are in fair condition but could use more consistent rain in the months ahead.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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