Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Flooding and additional rain in the northwestern Corn Belt, needed showers through the rest of the Corn Belt, hot temperatures across the southern tier of the U.S., and limited relief for the Black Sea are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

SEVERAL COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST

Flooding continues to be an issue along the Minnesota-Iowa border through southern Wisconsin and storms from Tuesday and Tuesday night caused heavy rain in parts of Missouri as well. Several fronts will move through the region going through next week, providing some better shower chances for areas in the east that have been very hot and dry for the last week or two. The rain should help with flash drought conditions that are developing in some areas, though a lot of this rain will not be counted on Thursday's Drought Monitor. The pattern stays active well into July, a favorable look to the forecast. Northwestern areas would like to see a break and dry conditions but will have to deal with scattered showers and thunderstorms moving through, sometimes with heavy rain.

HEAT WITH SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front is moving through the Central and Southern Plains with chances for thunderstorms Wednesday after a severe event Tuesday. Another will move through Thursday through the weekend with more and some cooler air, especially north. The active storm track is favoring northern areas with rain while southern areas are getting drier after flooding rains in May and early June. Heat will occur south of the fronts coming through and be stressful to crops when it exists. But those across the north are seeing better precipitation and mostly good conditions for developing corn and soybeans.

SCATTERED SHOWERS, COLDER FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Flooding continues to be an issue for southeastern South Dakota and any new rain will make it worse. Unfortunately, there will be several systems to move through the region through next week that will bring scattered showers. One will move through Thursday into the weekend and another moves through early next week. One more may come through at the end of next week. Temperatures will turn much colder for the weekend with a slight risk of frost in some areas. Though temperatures will moderate next week, they will still be cooler than normal.

HOT IN THE DELTA

A front will move through the Delta on Wednesday and Thursday with widespread showers and thunderstorms and a slight drop in temperatures. But the break from the heat is brief, with temperatures rising again to end the week. Models are forecasting occasional fronts to drift into the region going into July, but not with heavy precipitation, which may be stressful with the higher temperatures.

COLD AIR RETURNING TO CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Several storm systems will move through the Canadian Prairies through next week with scattered showers that will keep soil moisture high and continue potential flood threats in some areas, especially in the east toward Manitoba. Severe weather will also be possible on several occasions. Temperatures will trend colder late this week and weekend. Some limited frost will be possible, but unlikely to be widespread. Temperatures will moderate next week, but still be cooler than normal.

SOME RAIN IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Some rain will get into southern Brazil's safrinha corn areas with a front on Wednesday, but the lack of heavy rain will allow harvest to continue. Another front will move in Friday and Saturday with more scattered showers but also a burst of colder air. Though some frosts will be possible, it will be unlikely to have an effect on either mature corn or germinating winter wheat. Heavy rain from last month and last week continue to limit wheat planting, however.

LIMITED SHOWERS ACROSS ARGENTINA

Rainfall deficits continue to build up and soil moisture is low for winter wheat establishment in Argentina. A front later this week will bring some spotty showers, but also a burst of colder temperatures that will produce some frosts for a couple of days. Another likely does the same next week.

MORE RAIN MOVING THROUGH EUROPE

A system in the Mediterranean will continue showers for Italy and southeastern Europe for the next few days, favorable for increasing soil moisture for drought areas in the southeast. Another couple of systems will move through the continent later this week, weekend, and next week. France and Germany are getting a needed break from the rain but will likely find some pockets of heavy rain moving through again this weekend, though most areas should see lighter rainfall amounts.

LIMITED SHOWERS, BUILDING HEAT FOR BLACK SEA

A couple of fronts and systems are bringing some limited showers through the Black Sea region this week, but rainfall deficits continue to be large throughout most of the region and will have an adverse effect on developing corn and sunflowers. Drier conditions are likely next week, though far western areas could see some passing rain. Temperatures will be on the increase over the next few days, especially across Ukraine, getting into western Russia next week. The heat should cause some additional stress to corn and sunflowers.

FAVORABLE WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA

A system is moving through western Australia Wednesday with some good rain and will get into eastern areas late this week and weekend. Widespread rainfall, though only light in some areas, should be favorable for wheat and canola establishment in most areas.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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