Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- An active pattern for the U.S. and Canada, especially through the Corn Belt with heavy rain, flooding, and severe weather, wet weather in western Europe, continued dryness in the Black Sea, and flooding rain in southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

MORE HEAVY RAIN COMING FOR MIDWEST

A front has settled near the Ohio River and will stay active for the rest of the week. Additional systems will move through the Midwest Friday into Saturday, with another Sunday through possibly Tuesday. Only limited areas are going to be lucky enough to be dry, an unusual statement as we head into summer. Additional planting windows will continue to be short, though producers have been taking advantage of their limited opportunities. After a few days' break next week, another system may come through late next week and weekend.

SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front across the Southern Plains and more systems moving through the Central Plains will keep the region active through Sunday, causing severe weather and areas of heavy rain over portions of the region. Southwestern areas that continue to deal with drought are not forecast to see a lot of heavy rain, though thunderstorms that move through could bless limited areas with heavier amounts. Temperatures will fluctuate with fronts moving through, but in general will be cooler across the northwest and warmer across the south. Temperatures will be milder next week. A system moving into the region in the middle of next week could make for some more active weather going into the weekend.

NORTHERN PLAINS STAYING ACTIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL

A couple more storm systems will move through the Northern Plains through Monday. Some heavy rain may develop. Cooler temperatures will stay in place through Monday, and may cause some snow to mix in early Friday across North Dakota. Cold may also produce some limited frosts that will not help with germinating crops.

FRONT BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO NORTHERN DELTA

A front settled into the northern portions of the Delta for the next few days will be active with thunderstorms, causing heavy rain and severe weather potential. Additional storm systems may go through this weekend and early next week that could get more of the region active as well.

COLD AND WET IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

The storm track is farther south, but showers will still sneak into the boundaries of the Canadian Prairies across the east on Friday and across the south this weekend into next week. A larger storm system is likely to move through in the middle of next week with more scattered showers. Any rain will continue to make planting progress slower, but also help ease drought conditions.

ANOTHER FRONT CREATING FLOODING IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front in southern Brazil continues with more bouts of heavy rain that will make flooding conditions worse again. That front shifts northward for Friday and the weekend, where showers will get into southern safrinha corn growing areas, favorable for any crop it rains on.

WIDESPREAD FROSTS IN ARGENTINA

Cold and dry conditions continue in Argentina into next week, though northeastern areas will see some showers with a front on Thursday. The cold is producing more frosts, unfavorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Drier weather will increase the remaining corn and soybean harvest.

WESTERN EUROPE STAYING WET

Though there is no real system in the area, showers are continuing across much of Europe, including those that are too wet in France and Germany. The wetter weather is unfavorable for wheat development and spring planting that needs some sun and drier conditions. Showers will get into drier areas in the east, however, being more favorable there. A couple of systems are forecast to move through next week, continuing showers where they are not needed as well.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA

A front moving through the Black Sea region is only forecast to produce limited light showers in some areas through Friday. A disturbance moving into the Black Sea could produce showers near there this weekend into early next week, but most areas are likely to stay dry. Dryness is becoming critical for wheat that started off in good shape this spring. Summer crops are also dealing with dwindling soil moisture that is unfavorable.

QUIET WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA

Dry conditions last through the weekend and into early next week for most of Australia. A few systems may move into the country later next week, though models have backed off on how much precipitation will occur with them. Pacific Ocean temperatures continue to trend toward a favorable La Nina scenario over the next several weeks that offers better chances for needed rainfall for winter crops.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2024 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.