DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in Mexico with an extension into the East and several troughs and disturbances across Canada and the West. The disturbances will keep the ridge stuck down in Mexico while continually moving through the U.S. and Canada, keeping the pattern very active.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A ridge will build up in the West early next week while a trough shifts eastward, a somewhat quieter and cooler look to the pattern, at least for a short while. The ridge is not forecast to be strong enough to hold back a system for late next week and weekend that should move through southern Canada.

Though they treat the disturbances differently with each new model run, the U.S. and European models are still pretty similar with the overall setup.

A system will go through the country Sunday and Monday and may wrap up into the Great Lakes. Drier and cooler weather should follow behind that system but only for a limited time as another system moves through late next week and weekend.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...114 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW TUE...16 AT 37 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAHSATCH, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...OMAHA, NE 4.63 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in Mexico with an extension into the East and several troughs and disturbances across Canada and the West. The disturbances will keep the ridge stuck down in Mexico while continually moving through the U.S. and Canada, keeping the pattern very active. A ridge will build up in the West early next week while a trough shifts eastward, a somewhat quieter and cooler look to the pattern, at least for a short while. The ridge is not forecast to be strong enough to hold back a system for late next week and weekend that should move through southern Canada.

Though they treat the disturbances differently with each new model run, the U.S. and European models are still pretty similar with the overall setup.

A system will go through the country Sunday and Monday and may wrap up into the Great Lakes. Drier and cooler weather should follow behind that system but only for a limited time as another system moves through late next week and weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A few more storm systems will move through the region through Monday. Some heavy rain fell in southeastern areas on Tuesday, and more may develop. Cooler temperatures will stay in place through Monday, and may cause some snow to mix in early Friday across North Dakota. Cold may also produce some limited frosts that will not help with germinating crops.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front across the south and more systems moving through will keep the region active through Monday, causing severe weather and areas of heavy rain over portions of the region. Southwestern areas that continue to deal with drought are not forecast to see a lot of heavy rain, though thunderstorms that move through could bless limited areas with heavier amounts. Temperatures will fluctuate with fronts moving through, but in general will be cooler across the northwest and warmer across the south. Temperatures will be milder next week as a brief break in the active pattern allows areas to dry out. A system moving into the region late next week and weekend could make for some more active weather.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A large system that moved through on Tuesday brought widespread heavy rain and severe weather to the northwest. The front to the system will settle somewhere near the Ohio River and stay active for the rest of the week. Additional systems will move through the region this weekend and especially early next week that leave further planting windows short. Only limited areas are going to be lucky enough to be dry, an unusual statement as we head into summer. After a few day's break next week, another system may come through late next week and weekend.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): The main storm track will be to the north this week, but a front settling in the northern portions of the region for the next few days will be active with thunderstorms, causing heavy rain and severe weather potential. Additional storm systems may go through this weekend and early next week that could get more of the region active as well.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): A system is moving out of the region, though showers may develop for Wednesday. The storm track is farther south, but showers will still sneak into the boundaries of the region across the east on Friday and across the south this weekend into next week. Any rain will continue to make planting progress slower, but also help to ease drought conditions.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front in southern Brazil continues with more bouts of heavy rain that will make flooding conditions worse again. That front shifts northward for Friday and the weekend, where showers will get into southern safrinha corn growing areas, favorable for any crop it rains on.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Cold and dry conditions continue into next week, though northeastern areas will see some showers with a front Wednesday and Thursday. The cold is producing more frosts, unfavorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. But drier weather will increase the remaining corn and soybean harvest.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system is phasing out of the continent, but showers are continuing across western and central areas, including those that are too wet in France and Germany. The wetter weather is unfavorable for wheat development and spring planting that needs some sun and drier conditions.

Showers will get into drier areas in the east, however, more favorable there.

Some smaller systems are forecast for next week, but continue showers where they are not needed as well.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): A front moving through the region is only forecast to produce limited light showers in some areas through Friday.

Dryness is becoming critical for wheat that started off in good shape this spring. Summer crops are also dealing with dwindling soil moisture that is unfavorable.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Dry conditions last through the weekend and into early next week. A few systems may move into the country later next week, though models have backed off on how much precipitation will occur with them. Pacific Ocean temperatures continue to trend toward a favorable La Nina scenario over the next several weeks that offers better chances for needed rainfall for winter crops.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers, heavy rain. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers west. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday. Temperatures near to below normal west and above normal east Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers north and east. Temperatures below normal northwest and above normal south.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal north and above normal south Friday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers south. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers south Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated showers north Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers south Thursday-Sunday.

Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday, near to below normal south and above normal north Saturday-Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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