DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the middle of North America and a couple more out in the Pacific. The North American trough will continue to slowly move eastward and deepen in eastern Canada this weekend. A ridge should follow behind it, but be weak enough to allow disturbances from the Pacific trough to move through the country anyway.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

One of these disturbances will be bigger as it moves into the Southwest later next week and weekend as the ridge shifts into the East.

The U.S. and European models are similar through the weekend but are different for next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, a small system will move through early next week and that may bring in a reinforcing shot of cooler air east of the Rockies, but the trend will be for warmer temperatures for later in the week. Another storm should gather for later next week and weekend as well.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...99 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW WED...13 AT 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF SHOUP, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...GREEN BAY, WI 1.15 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in the middle of North America and a couple more out in the Pacific. The North American trough will continue to slowly move eastward and deepen in eastern Canada this weekend. A ridge should follow behind it, but be weak enough to allow disturbances from the Pacific trough to move through the country anyway. One of these will be bigger as it moves into the Southwest later next week and weekend as the ridge shifts into the East.

The U.S. and European models are similar through the weekend but are different for next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, a small system will move through early next week and that may bring in a reinforcing shot of cooler air east of the Rockies, but the trend will be for warmer temperatures for later in the week. Another storm should gather for later next week and weekend as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A storm brought widespread heavy rain to the Dakotas this week that will help to build some soil moisture in dry areas. Cold air is filling in behind the system through the weekend before temperatures rise back up above normal again next week. That comes after another small disturbance moves through with showers on Monday. Despite some areas of heavier rain recently, large-scale delays to early planting are not expected.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A strong storm system brought widespread showers and thunderstorms through the region early this week, though the driest areas in the southwest did not get much out of this storm. The harsher cold front to the system will move through with scattered showers over the next few days and temperatures will drop significantly into the weekend and could produce frost damage for winter wheat.

The pattern stays active next week with a small disturbance and a few showers early in the week, followed by a much more widespread precipitation event later next week and weekend that could get some better rainfall into southwestern areas.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A storm system brought areas of heavy rain this week, especially to western drought areas. The main cold front will go sweeping through the region on Thursday and cold air will fill in behind it going into next week. A small system may move through early next week with some showers and another burst of cooler air before temperatures start to rise later next week. Despite some heavier rain, planting is likely to continue at a normal pace.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Heavy rain has led to areas of water-logged soils and flooding recently, which will slow planting down for a while. A long and drawn-out system will bring through a few more rounds of showers through the weekend that will keep soils wet, but probably won't be enough to make it worse. The region may or may not get more of a break next week if a small storm system stays north as currently forecast, but a system could impact the region later next week or weekend as well.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front continues to move north through the country this week and showers are getting more isolated as the week wears on. They will continue over the north, but central states are drying out.

Heavier rain over the south this week has been helpful for safrinha corn, but not harvest of full-season crops. The consistent wet season showers are winding down now and fronts coming north from Argentina will become the main source of precipitation going forward. That does not bode well for safrinha corn in central Brazil that still has below-normal subsoil moisture and will run out quickly in May as more of the crop goes through pollination and fill. The chances for southern areas to get some needed rain in the future is higher and a front is forecast to move in early next week with showers.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Drier weather for most of this week was needed to drain soils from previous heavy rain. Another system will go through with showers this weekend, however, and may continue an active trend across northern areas that are trying to harvest corn and soybeans. Drier weather would actually be more favorable for the next few weeks as harvest continues to increase. Soil moisture for the coming winter wheat crop is very favorable, however.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A series of systems has been bringing showers that favor the eastern two-thirds of the continent into the weekend. A part of that system will jut westward early next week and continue showers there, which is unfavorable for winter wheat that is already too wet. Colder air flowing into much of the continent will continue to produce some spotty frosts that could cause some damage to wheat and delay corn and other summer crop planting.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): A front that has settled into the western portions of the region is bringing some areas good rainfall into next week, but leaving the wheat areas in eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia unfavorably drier and much warmer. Meanwhile, western and northern areas of the region that grow more corn should get some needed moisture as planting starts up in some areas. The rain could cause delays to that, but producers there will welcome the rainfall.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Outside of a small area in the northeast, most of the country will be dry through next week. Cotton and sorghum harvest continues to increase in mostly favorable conditions. But wheat and canola are being planted in fair to poor soil moisture for the most part.

This could cause delays to planting. The ending El Nino and eventual turn to La Nina should favor the winter crops later this year.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday.

Isolated to scattered showers Monday. Temperatures falling Thursday, below normal Friday-Sunday, near normal Monday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through early Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Temperatures above normal Thursday, falling Friday, below normal Saturday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday.

Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday, above normal Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Isolated showers Monday. Temperatures below normal northwest and above normal southeast Thursday, below normal Friday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Saturday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Scattered showers Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, above normal Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers west. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers northwest through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, above normal Saturday-Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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