Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A strong cold front that will bring a risk of frost to the Plains, a mix of conditions in Europe and the Black Sea and the end of the consistent wet season showers in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

FRONT BRINGING COLD AIR TO MIDWEST

A storm system brought areas of heavy rain to the Midwest this week, especially to western drought areas. The main cold front will sweep through the region on Thursday and cold air will fill in behind it going into next week. A small system may move through early next week with some showers and another burst of cooler air before temperatures start to rise later next week. Despite some heavier rain, planting is likely to continue at a normal pace.

STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A strong storm system brought widespread showers and thunderstorms through the Central and Southern Plains early this week, though the driest areas in the southwest did not get much out of this storm and drought has increased throughout much of Kansas. The harsher cold front to the system will move through with scattered showers over the next few days and temperatures will drop significantly into the weekend. That could produce frost damage for winter wheat. The pattern stays active next week with a small disturbance and a few showers early in the week, followed by a much more widespread precipitation event later next week and weekend that could get some better rainfall into southwestern areas.

COLD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A storm brought widespread heavy rain to the Dakotas this week that will help to build some soil moisture in dry areas. Cold air is filling in behind the system through the weekend before temperatures rise back up above normal again next week. That comes after another small disturbance moves through with showers on Monday. Despite some areas of heavier rain recently, large-scale delays to early planting are not expected.

MORE ROUNDS OF RAIN FOR DELTA

Heavy rain has led to areas of water-logged soils and flooding in the Delta recently, which will slow planting down for a while. A long and drawn-out system will bring through a few more rounds of showers through the weekend that will keep soils wet, but probably won't be enough to make it worse. The region may or may not get more of a break next week if a small storm system stays north as currently forecast, but a system could impact the region later next week or weekend as well.

WET SEASON SHOWERS SHUTTING DOWN EARLY IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front continues to move north through Brazil this week and showers are getting more isolated as the week wears on. They will continue over the north, but central states are drying out. Heavier rain over the south this week has been helpful for safrinha corn, but not the harvest of full-season crops. The consistent wet season showers are winding down now and fronts coming north from Argentina will become the main source of precipitation going forward. That does not bode well for safrinha corn in central Brazil which still has below-normal subsoil moisture and will run out quickly in May as more of the crop goes through pollination and fill. The chances for southern areas to get some needed rain in the future are higher and a front is forecast to move in early next week with showers.

ARGENTINA TRYING TO DRY OUT

Drier weather in Argentina for most of this week was needed to drain soils from previous heavy rain. Another system will go through with showers this weekend, however, and may continue an active trend across northern areas that are trying to harvest corn and soybeans. Drier weather would be more favorable for the next few weeks as harvest continues to increase. Soil moisture for the coming winter wheat crop is very favorable, however.

COOL AND WET IN EUROPE

A series of systems have been bringing showers that favor the eastern two-thirds of the continent into the weekend. A part of that system will jut westward early next week and continue showers there, which is unfavorable for winter wheat that is already too wet. Colder air flowing into much of the continent will continue to produce some spotty frosts that could cause some damage to wheat and delay corn and other summer crop planting.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR DRY BLACK SEA WHEAT

A front that has settled into the western portions of the Black Sea region is bringing some areas good rainfall into next week, but leaving the wheat areas in eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia unfavorably drier and much warmer. Meanwhile, western and northern areas of the region that grow more corn should get some needed moisture as planting starts up in some areas. The rain could cause delays to that, but producers there will welcome the rainfall.

EARLY DRYNESS NOT A HUGE CONCERN FOR AUSTRALIA

Outside of a small area in the northeast, most of Australia will be dry through next week. Cotton and sorghum harvest continues to increase in mostly favorable conditions. But wheat and canola are being planted in fair to poor soil moisture for the most part. This could cause delays to planting. The ending El Nino and eventual turn to La Nina should favor the winter crops later this year.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com.

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