Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Severe storms and heavy rainfall will impact the Southern Plains, Southern Delta and Southeast through midweek which could cause some planting delays. Across South America, an active pattern continues with chances for showers in Argentina and Brazil into this weekend. These are the weather factors driving the markets for Tuesday.

RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDWEST

Moderate rain fell across parts of the region Sunday and Monday and another system will bring widespread showers again by the middle of this week. Heavier rainfall will mainly impact the Eastern Midwest later this week. The active pattern is helping build soil moisture ahead of spring planting. The soils have been mostly dry enough to soak it all in, although there are some wetness and flooding concerns along the Ohio River, Illinois River, and Wabash River. If the pattern continues to be very active with little breaks in the precipitation, we may see some areas having to push back planting, but that risk still seems low.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS

This past weekend, blizzard conditions in western Nebraska and severe thunderstorms impacted the Central Plains. Scattered rain showers and the threat of severe thunderstorms will continue across the Southern Plains early this week. Quieter conditions return briefly during the second half of this week. However, the pattern will remain active through mid-April, bringing multiple chances at building soil moisture as spring planting gets started. Even so, there are no areas in the region that are overly wet, so spring planting is likely to be on time. Instead, some areas are missing the active pattern and drier conditions have developed for wheat in the southwest.

MORE SHOWERS RETURN TO NORTHERN PLAINS MID-WEEK

A system brought gusty winds, rain and some heavy snow to the High Plains this past weekend with lingering precipitation on Monday. Another round of light showers is possible by midweek. Drier conditions return for the second half of the week before another large system may impact the area early next week. The increasing precipitation should help with building soil moisture and the lack of snowpack should lead to on-time planting, even if the pattern stays active this spring.

STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN DELTA

Soil is in good shape across most areas as spring planting starts and rain returned on Monday as a cold front was draped across the Southern Delta. More widespread, heavy rain showers and thunderstorms are expected through Wednesday which could lead to areas of flooding. There are some wetter areas from the active storm track which could delay planting progress.

POSSIBLE END TO WET-SEASON SHOWERS IN CENTRAL BRAZIL BY NEXT WEEK

Scattered showers will likely continue across central and northern Brazil through this week and this weekend. More showers will impact southern Brazil later this week with the passage of another cold front. The more active period this week is going to be important as rainfall is forecast to be more limited afterward with the wet season winding down and the country being more reliant on fronts moving through.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ARGENTINA THIS WEEK

A front moved through Argentina this past weekend providing more scattered rain showers. The active pattern continues with showers expected by midweek and again this upcoming weekend before starting to dry early next week. Filling corn and soybeans have had stable conditions for the last couple of weeks, which continues to be the case with much of the crop maturing. Forecasts for large corn and soybean crops, about double last year's drought-reduced amount, seem very likely at this point in the year.

STORM TRACK STAYS IN NORTHERN EUROPE, LIMITING SHOWERS IN BLACK SEA REGION

Showers will continue to be limited throughout this week as much of the widespread showers stay north of the region, which does not look helpful for building back in some topsoil moisture after a dry March. Temperatures will continue to be very warm, hastening winter crop development and getting spring planting off to an early start. By early next week, a front from northern Europe may try to expand south, which would help northern parts of the Black Sea region.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com.

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