DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

A cutoff low is exiting the North-Central U.S. while another cutoff low has formed in northern Mexico. A ridge is located across the Eastern U.S. while another ridge is developing across the West. The cutoff low in the North-Central U.S. will weaken and continue to drift northeast into southern Canada early this week while the cutoff low in Mexico will advance into the Southern Plains by Wednesday, leading to severe thunderstorms and a risk of heavy rainfall for the Southeast and Southern Delta.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A trough will expand across Central before moving into the East late this week. Meanwhile, a ridge developing in the West will provide drier and warmer conditions to the Plains and Delta by Friday.

The U.S. and European models show the same general pattern, but differ with some of the details. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures will be above normal across much of Central and East with near normal temperatures expected along the West Coast.

The trough in the East will exit the region this weekend. Two disturbances in the West will advance into Central early next week and provide chances for severe thunderstorms, gusty winds, and rainfall. Some snow could develop on the back side of a system across the Northern Plains. Precipitation will shift east by the end of the period with more showers impacting the Delta and Southeast.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...97 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW MON...10 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...MEMPHIS, TN 0.51 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

A cutoff low is exiting the North-Central U.S. while another cutoff low has formed in northern Mexico. A ridge is located across the Eastern U.S. while another ridge is developing across the West. The cutoff low in the North-Central U.S. will weaken and continue to drift northeast into southern Canada early this week while the cutoff low in Mexico will advance into the Southern Plains by Wednesday, leading to severe thunderstorms and a risk of heavy rainfall for the Southeast and Southern Delta. A trough will expand across Central before moving into the East late this week. Meanwhile, a ridge developing in the West will provide drier and warmer conditions to the Plains and Delta by Friday.

The U.S. and European models show the same general pattern, but differ with some of the details. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures will be above normal across much of Central and East with near normal temperatures expected along the West Coast.

The trough in the East will exit the region this weekend. Two disturbances in the West will advance into Central early next week and provide chances for severe thunderstorms, gusty winds, and rainfall. Some snow could develop on the back side of a system across the Northern Plains. Precipitation will shift east by the end of the period with more showers impacting the Delta and Southeast.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system brought gusty winds, rain, and some heavy snow to the High Plains this past weekend with lingering precipitation on Monday. Another round of light showers is possible by mid-week. Drier conditions return for the second half of the week before another large system may impact the area early next week. The increasing precipitation should help with building soil moisture and the lack of snowpack should lead to on-time planting, even if the pattern stays active this spring.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Blizzard conditions in western Nebraska and severe thunderstorms impacted the Central Plains this past weekend. Scattered rain showers and the threat for severe thunderstorms will continue across the Southern Plains early this week. Quieter conditions return briefly during the second half of this week. However, the pattern will remain active through mid-April, bringing multiple chances at building soil moisture as spring planting gets started. Even so, there are no areas in the region that are overly wet, so spring planting is likely to be on time. Instead, some areas are getting missed in the active pattern and drier conditions have developed for wheat in the southwest.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Moderate rain fell across parts of the region Sunday and Monday and another system will bring widespread showers again by the middle of this week. Widespread rainfall will mainly impact the Eastern Midwest later this week. The active pattern is helping to build soil moisture ahead of spring planting. The soils have been mostly dry enough to soak it all in, although there are some wetness and flooding concerns along the Ohio River, Illinois River, and Wabash River. If the pattern continues to be very active with little breaks in the precipitation, we may see some areas having to push back planting, but that risk still seems low at this point.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Soils are in good shape across most areas as spring planting starts and rain returned on Monday as a cold front was draped across the Southern Delta. More widespread, heavy rain showers and thunderstorms are expected through Wednesday which could lead to areas of flooding. There are some wetter areas from the active storm track which could delay planting progress.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers will likely continue across central and northern Brazil through this week and this weekend. More showers will impact southern Brazil later this week with the passage of another cold front.

The more active period this week is going to be important as rainfall is forecast to be more limited afterward with the wet season winding down and the country being more reliant on fronts moving through.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front moved through Argentina this past weekend providing more scattered rain showers. The active pattern continues with showers expected by mid-week and again this upcoming weekend before starting to dry out early next week. Filling corn and soybeans have had stable conditions for the last couple of weeks, which continues to be the case with much of the crop maturing. Forecasts for large corn and soybean crops, about double last year's drought-reduced amount, seems very likely at this point in the year.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A persistent storm track brought more waves of showers through northern Europe this past weekend and this will continue through the rest of this week as well. This has been helpful for Spain, but detrimental for France and the UK, which have continued to be too wet in many locations. France and the southern UK may see a break in precipitation late this week into the upcoming weekend. Temperatures are well above normal, forcing the development of winter wheat and likely starting planting up early.

Wheat areas that are drier in the southeast will not fare as well with the hotter and drier conditions.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): Showers will continue to be limited throughout this week as much of the widespread showers stay north of the region, which does not look all that helpful for building back in some topsoil moisture after a dry March. Temperatures will continue to be very warm, hastening winter crop development and getting spring planting off to an early start. By early next week, a front from northern Europe may try to expand south, which would help northern parts of the Black Sea region.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A front in Queensland drifted south again with scattered showers this past weekend, bringing some good showers back through New South Wales. Otherwise, a lot of dry soils exist out there, which is good for cotton and sorghum harvest, but not for conditioning soils ahead of winter wheat and canola planting, which starts up soon. Western Australia may see better chances for widespread rainfall late this week as remnants of tropical cyclone Olga drift south. The ending El Nino and eventual turn to La Nina should favor the winter crops later this year.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday and late Wednesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures above to well above normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers and storms. Temperatures near to below normal west and above normal east.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal west and above normal east Tuesday-Wednesday, near to well above normal Thursday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Thursday. Temperatures above to well above normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal west and above normal east Thursday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, near to below normal south and above normal north Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

Teresa Wells can be reached at Teresa.Wells@dtn.com

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