Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) – Showers will continue across the Midwest on Monday and there is a risk for severe storms and heavy rainfall across the Southern Plains, Southern Delta and Southeast through the midweek. Across South America, an active pattern continues with chances for showers in Argentina and Brazil throughout the week. These are the weather factors driving the markets for Monday.

MORE SHOWERS ON THE WAY FOR THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS WEEK

The pattern stays active with a burst of showers lingering through Monday and another system will bring widespread showers again by the middle of this week. The active pattern helps to build soil moisture ahead of spring planting. The soil has been mostly dry enough to soak it all in, although there are some wetness and flooding concerns along the Ohio River. If the pattern continues to be very active with little breaks in the precipitation, we may see some areas having to push back planting, but that risk still seems low.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY

This past weekend, blizzard conditions in western Nebraska and severe thunderstorms impacted the Central Plains. Scattered rain showers and the threat of severe thunderstorms will continue across the Southern Plains early this week. Quieter conditions return briefly during the second half of this week. However, the pattern will remain active in April, bringing multiple chances at building soil moisture ahead of spring planting. Even so, there are no areas in the region that are overly wet, so spring planting is likely to be on time. Instead, some areas are missing the active pattern and drier conditions have developed for wheat in the southwest.

SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A system brought gusty winds, rain, and some heavy snow to the High Plains this past weekend. Precipitation will linger across the area on Monday with another round of light showers possible by mid-week. Drier conditions return for the second half of the week before another large system may impact the area early next week. The increasing precipitation should help with building soil moisture and the lack of snowpack should lead to on-time planting, even if the pattern stays active this spring.

WETTER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS WEEK FOR SOUTHERN DELTA

Soils are in good shape across most areas before spring planting. A front will bring a chance for more showers on Monday before a bigger system moves through during the mid-week with more widespread and heavier rain. There are some wetter areas from the active storm track, but some larger breaks between storms later this month could lead to more on-time planting.

POSSIBLE END TO WET-SEASON SHOWERS IN CENTRAL BRAZIL BY NEXT WEEK

Scattered showers will likely continue across central and northern Brazil through this week. A front moving through this past weekend will stall out early this week and provide more promising, widespread rainfall across the south. The more active period this week is going to be important as rainfall is forecast to be more limited afterward with the wet season winding down and the country being more reliant on fronts moving through.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ARGENTINA THIS WEEK

A front moved through Argentina this past weekend, but a few showers could linger for northern areas early this week with a front stalling out across southern Brazil. The active pattern continues with showers expected by midweek and again this upcoming weekend before starting to dry out early next week. Filling corn and soybeans have had stable conditions for the last couple of weeks, which continues to be the case with much of the crop maturing. Forecasts for large corn and soybean crops, about double last year's drought-reduced amount, seem very likely at this point in the year.

STORM TRACK STAYS IN NORTHERN EUROPE, LIMITING SHOWERS IN BLACK SEA REGION

Showers will continue to be limited throughout this week as much of the widespread showers stay north of the Black Sea region, which does not look helpful for building back in some topsoil moisture after a dry March. Temperatures will continue to be very warm, hastening winter crop development and getting spring planting off to an early start. By early next week, more systems from northern Europe may try to expand south, which would help northern parts of the Black Sea region.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com.

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