DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the Central and another in the Gulf of Alaska. The U.S. trough will head east over the next few days and be quite strong. The Alaskan trough will dive down into the West later this week with part of it rotating back up through the Northern Plains while another impulse dives down behind it over the weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The second impulse will move east through the country next week with an active pattern forecast to continue afterward as well.

The U.S. and European models show the same general pattern, but differ with some of the details. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures will be rising east of the Rockies, while falling in the West. In general, temperatures are forecast to increase, and even with a trough moving through the country next week, the cooler temperatures are not forecast to bring much of a chill to anywhere but the far south. One system will move through the Plains and into the Midwest for Sunday and Monday with scattered showers that may mess up viewing of the total eclipse. The main storm system will move through later in the week with more widespread rain forecast, though that is uncertain.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...102 AT CARRIZO SPRINGS, TX

LOW MON...0 AT WAHSATCH, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...FORT WAYNE, IN 1.53 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in the Central and another in the Gulf of Alaska. The U.S.

trough will head east over the next few days and be quite strong. The Alaskan trough will dive down into the West later this week with part of it rotating back up through the Northern Plains while another impulse dives down behind it over the weekend. The second impulse will move east through the country next week.

The U.S. and European models show the same general pattern, but differ with some of the details. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures will be rising east of the Rockies, while falling in the West. In general, temperatures are forecast to increase, and even with a trough moving through the country next week, the cooler temperatures are not forecast to bring much of a chill to anywhere but the far south. One system will move through the Plains and into the Midwest for Sunday and Monday with scattered showers that may mess up viewing of the total eclipse. The main storm system will move through later in the week with more widespread rain forecast, though that is uncertain.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Snow went through South Dakota over the last couple of days. Drier weather follows for most of the region, though western areas could see some showers moving through later this week as a trough spins off to the west. Some of those showers may be more widespread on Sunday and Monday. Cooler temperatures will rise this week, helping to melt the snow and add to soil moisture.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system is exiting early Tuesday which brought scattered showers and thunderstorms and some severe weather. Areas in the southwest that have been drier also saw some needed rainfall. More showers are forecast to move through this weekend with more next week. The potential for rain is increasing, which could be helpful for winter wheat conditions after last week's hard freeze.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Widespread showers continue to move through the region on Tuesday as a system wraps up in the Great Lakes. That will bring some heavy snow to eastern Wisconsin and some adjacent areas through Wednesday. Showers may linger over eastern areas on Thursday. Afterward, warmer temperatures will move in from the west through the weekend as well as another round of potential showers. And then a system is forecast to move through next week as well with more precipitation. Drought areas have been and are receiving more frequent precipitation, which is helping to limit the effects and build soil moisture prior to spring planting.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Soils are in good shape across most areas prior to spring planting. A front is moving through with scattered showers Tuesday with a chance for more Sunday and Monday before a bigger system moves through later next week. Bigger breaks between storms could lead to some planting where it is not too wet.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers will likely continue across central Brazil all this week as well as next week. A front moving through southern areas brought some showers there early this week and another will probably do something similar later this week and weekend. Soil moisture has only increased slightly across central Brazil despite the better rainfall and southern areas are seeing soil moisture decreasing. The more active period through next week is going to be important as rainfall is forecast to be more limited afterward with the wet season winding down.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Another system will move through on Wednesday and Thursday with more showers. Conditions look to be drier for a period afterward.

Filling corn and soybeans have had stable conditions for the last couple of weeks, which continues to be the case with much of the crop maturing or getting to a point where rainfall is becoming less and less helpful. Forecasts for large corn and soybean crops, about double last year's drought-reduced amount, seems very likely at this point in the year.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A persistent storm system in the northeast Atlantic brought waves of showers through western Europe over the weekend, which was helpful for Spain, but detrimental for France, which has continued to be too wet in many locations. The storm will send a bunch of energy through the continent this week, which favors northern areas with showers and increases temperatures. A somewhat similar forecast is lining up for next week as well.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): Some showers went through western Russia over the weekend, which were helpful where they occurred since it has been much drier in March. The active pattern across Europe will only bring isolated showers this week, which does not look all that helpful for building back in some topsoil moisture. Temperatures will continue to be very warm, hastening winter crop development and getting spring planting off to an early start across the south.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system moving through the southeast will bring some showers early this week and the front to the system looks to get stuck in Queensland for a few days, which may drift back south again later this week and weekend. If it does, that would bring some good showers back through New South Wales. Otherwise, a lot of dry soils exist out there, which is good for cotton and sorghum harvest, but not for conditioning soils ahead of winter wheat and canola planting, which starts up in about two weeks. The ending El Nino and eventual turn to La Nina should favor the winter crops later this year.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday.

Temperatures near normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Friday, near normal Saturday.

East: Scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures above normal west and below normal east Sunday, above to well above normal Monday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal north and well above normal south.

Forecast: Scattered showers ending early Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday.

Isolated to scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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