Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Cold air in the U.S. Plains, a continued active pattern for the U.S., and a stalled front in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

BUILDING SOIL MOISTURE FOLLOWING BIG STORM IN MIDWEST

A big system is exiting the Midwest and brought widespread heavy amounts to Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, which should help with the drought situation and building of soil moisture. Cold air is filling in behind the storm with the coldest air over the deeper snowpack across Minnesota. The rest of the region will warm up ahead of the next disturbance on Thursday or Friday. That small disturbance will bring some showers through this weekend. Another system will bring scattered showers and a renewed shot of colder temperatures for early April. The precipitation from the more active pattern should benefit soil moisture ahead of spring planting in most areas.

COLD IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Cold air will be in the Central and Southern Plains for one more day, which could be causing damage in HRW territory. Temperatures rise during the day Thursday with more showers possible into the weekend before another system goes through early next week. Models are inconsistent about precipitation production for southwestern areas with this last storm, but potential is there for some help for drier soils.

COLD AND ACTIVE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Showers will move across the Northern Plains Thursday through the weekend. Some heavy snow may fall across South Dakota on Monday, but models are not consistent with any of the details to the systems moving through. Though they will waffle around, temperatures should remain on the colder side of normal through at least Monday, but probably moderate closer to normal next week.

GOOD SOIL MOISTURE FOR DELTA

A cold front brought a line of showers and thunderstorms through the Delta on Monday with heavy rain. Another storm will move through early next week with more rainfall. Soils are in good shape across most of the region and big enough breaks between storms could lead to some early planting where it is not too wet. Cooler and wetter conditions may limit planting in most places, though.

FRONT CONTINUES IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front that has settled into central Brazil since the weekend continues to produce good showers for safrinha corn. That probably shifts into northern Brazil this weekend. The heavier and more widespread rain is promising to build in some decent subsoil moisture where reserves have been more limited. At the same time, areas to the south have been much drier and may have to rely on that built-up soil moisture earlier than normal, which may be harmful if levels get too low too quickly. A little system moving through early next week may provide at least some showers.

DRIER IN ARGENTINA

Outside of a small disturbance with a few showers for southern Argentina Tuesday and Wednesday, it should be dry this week, which is not ideal for filling corn and soybeans but will allow for some of the wetter areas to dry out a bit. A system should bring showers through this weekend, which looks to start up a more active week of weather.

WHEAT GETTING TOO DRY IN BLACK SEA

A system that moved through the Black Sea region Tuesday brought some areas of showers, but missed some key areas of eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia, which have been too dry over the last few weeks. Other systems going through Europe will likely escape around the region, which brings in warm air instead. That favors developing winter wheat, but also dries out soils, which are going to hope for a slightly more active period next week.

FRANCE AND UK STILL WET IN ACTIVE EUROPEAN PATTERN

A big storm will stay close to the UK this week, sending several waves of showers through Europe throughout this week and probably next week as well. Precipitation will be heavier in the west, which favors Spain but not the UK or France, which continue to be too wet.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com.

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