DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...93 AT FORT LAUDERDALE, FL

LOW MON...6 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT MONDAY...FLAGSTAFF, AZ 0.42 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in the Northwest up through Alaska with a trough in the East, another in central Canada, and an upper-level low in the Southwest. The Canadian trough will be guiding some disturbances from the Pacific through the U.S. That includes the upper low in the Southwest as well, making for an active pattern. A deeper trough will move into the West this weekend and is forecast to slowly move east next week, probably in a few pieces.

The U.S. and European models show the same general pattern, but differ with details, starting with a large storm system this weekend and next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European for now.

For the outlook period, a large spring storm system is forecast to move into the middle of the country this weekend and early next week, moving through the country in at least two pieces. Widespread impacts are expected, including heavy snow and potential blizzard conditions, freezing rain, severe storms, and strong winds. Models disagree on where all these hazards will occur, but should be followed by a burst of arctic air.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A brief warm shot will move through Tuesday, but another round of cold air will push into the region midweek that will likely last through most of next week as well. In the colder air, several systems will move through with scattered showers, mostly as snow.

Some of these bursts could be heavier, especially with a storm system this weekend that could bring blizzard conditions.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): An upper-level low in the Southwest will bring some more widespread showers through on Wednesday and Thursday as it finally moves east. The pattern gets very active afterward, with a double-barreled system moving through this weekend and early next week that at least has a chance for meaningful precipitation across the southwestern wheat areas. A burst of arctic air will likely flow down through the region next week behind that system, which could be damaging for some wheat.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Another clipper will move through the Great Lakes Tuesday and Wednesday. More lake-effect showers will move through but most areas will stay drier. However, the colder temperatures will come through the region again. That sets up another clipper to move through Thursday and Friday with a burst of snow. But the big story will be a major spring storm system that will have multiple effects this weekend into early next week including heavy snow, freezing rain, strong winds, and severe storm potential as it comes through in at least two pieces.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through southern areas over the weekend, helping to maintain overall good soil moisture in much of the region. Several additional storm systems will move through the region this week and next, which should do the same.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front moved into southern Brazil with scattered showers this weekend, as well as some areas of heavy rain. That front keeps much of the country active this week but another that moves through Thursday and Friday will move up into central states. That should leave some good rain for safrinha corn that has had very little over the last week. It will be drier behind the front across the south, which is not exactly a good thing for immature crops there.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A couple of disturbances will move through this week that should bring more showers through the country. A stronger front will move through on Wednesday and into early Thursday. It may have widespread heavy showers with it, but conditions will dry out behind it through the weekend.

More disturbances moving through next week should keep the overall good conditions going, however.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): An upper-level low will approach Spain this week, but stay offshore, bringing in limited showers. This could move eastward this weekend as another system dives down through the continent and next week looks pretty active as well. In other words, precipitation will be pretty widespread through the end of the month, favorable for winter wheat in most areas, but still too wet in France most likely.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): An upper-low in Ukraine will move into the Black Sea by the end of the week, keeping some showers going across southwestern Russia into the weekend. A front should sweep through the region next week with potential for more widespread and heavier showers. Soil moisture and wheat conditions are both in good shape as the crop continues to green up early.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers went through southeastern areas over the weekend, but were pretty isolated in the areas hit.

A front is sweeping through the east over the next few days, stalling in Queensland where showers are now forecast to last through the weekend, favorable for adding to soil moisture here. Cotton and sorghum are maturing and seeing some early harvest activity. Soil moisture is not favorable ahead of winter wheat and canola planting, which usually starts up in mid-April. The demise of El Nino and eventual turn to La Nina should favor the winter crops later this year, however.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

East: Lake-effect snow. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, below normal north and above normal south Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

East: Isolated lake-effect snow through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday.

Scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Sunday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday.

Temperatures below normal north and above normal south Sunday, below normal west and above normal east Monday-Tuesday, near to well below normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday, north Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, below normal north and above normal south Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Temperatures below normal north and above normal south Sunday, below to well below normal Monday-Thursday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday.

Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

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