Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Cold air building in Canada with an eye on the U.S., a major storm over the weekend into next week, and mixed weather conditions in South America are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

COLDER AIR SETTLING INTO MIDWEST, BIG STORM THIS WEEKEND

Another clipper will move through the Great Lakes Tuesday and Wednesday. More lake-effect showers will move through, but most areas will stay drier. However, the colder temperatures will come through the region again. That sets up another clipper to move through Thursday and Friday with a burst of snow. But the big story will be a major spring storm system that will have multiple effects this weekend into early next week including heavy snow, freezing rain, strong winds, and severe storm potential as it comes through in at least two pieces.

DOUBLE-BARRELED STORM FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

An upper-level low-pressure center in the Southwest will bring some more widespread showers through Wednesday and Thursday as it finally moves east. The pattern gets very active afterward, with a double-barreled system moving through this weekend and early next week that at least has a chance for meaningful precipitation across the southwestern wheat areas. A burst of Arctic air will likely flow down through the region next week behind that system, which could be damaging for some wheat.

SNOW AND COLD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A brief warm shot will move through the Northern Plains on Tuesday, but another round of cold air will push into the region Wednesday that will likely last through most of next week as well. In the colder air, several systems will move through with scattered showers, mostly as snow. Some of these bursts could be heavier, especially with a storm system this weekend that could bring blizzard conditions.

GOOD SOIL MOISTURE IN THE DELTA

Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through the southern Delta over the weekend, helping to maintain overall good soil moisture in much of the region. Several additional storm systems will move through the region this week and next, which should do the same.

IMPROVED RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front moved into southern Brazil with scattered showers this weekend, as well as some areas of heavy rain. That front keeps much of the country active this week but another that moves through Thursday and Friday will move up into central states. That should leave some good rain for safrinha corn that has had very little over the last week. It will be drier behind the front across the south, which is not exactly a good thing for immature crops there.

STRONG FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH ARGENTINA

Another disturbance will move through Argentina Tuesday that should bring more showers through the country. A stronger front will move through on Wednesday and into early Thursday. It may have widespread heavy showers with it, but conditions will dry out behind it through the weekend. More disturbances moving through next week should keep the overall good conditions going, however.

WHEAT IN GOOD CONDITION IN BLACK SEA

An upper-low in Ukraine will move into the Black Sea by the end of the week, keeping some showers going across southwestern Russia into the weekend. A front should sweep through the region next week with potential for more widespread and heavier showers. Soil moisture and wheat conditions are both in good shape as the crop continues to green up early.

FRANCE STILL WET IN ACTIVE EUROPEAN PATTERN

An upper-level low will approach Spain this week, but stay offshore, bringing in limited showers. This could move eastward this weekend as another system dives down through Europe and next week looks pretty active as well. In other words, precipitation will be pretty widespread through the end of the month, favorable for winter wheat in most areas, but still too wet in France most likely.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com.

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