Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A front and system moving through the U.S., including the drier southwestern Plains and widespread showers in South America are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

WARM AND WET FOR MIDWEST

A cold front continues to move across the Midwest Tuesday into Wednesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Though temperatures will decrease behind the front, they will still be above normal. Another storm system will move through Thursday into the weekend with more widespread precipitation and chances for snow in some areas. Both systems should help with topsoil moisture. Temperatures remain warm going into mid-March and may coax some early planting across the south in the next couple of weeks if the forecast is benign.

SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system will move through the Central and Southern Plains Wednesday night through Friday with widespread scattered showers. That may include some pockets of snow, mostly in the High Plains, but will help add to soil moisture for helping to fight any outstanding wildfires. It will also help to replace soil moisture losses due to higher winds and temperatures that have sapped it from the topsoil recently, favorable for wheat.

NORTHERN PLAINS COOLER THIS WEEK

Some cooler air will remain around the Northern Plains for the next couple of days before rising again by this weekend. In the cooler air, more showers will be possible through Thursday, mostly as some light snow.

MORE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH DELTA

Above-normal temperatures continue in the Delta through mid-March while a couple of systems bring more rainfall through the region this week. The combination of good soil moisture and warm temperatures may coax some early planting in the region over the next couple of weeks.

OVERALL GOOD SHOWERS IN BRAZIL

Wet season showers in central Brazil continue to be widely scattered through this week, favorable for emerging safrinha corn. A front in southern Brazil will be active for much of this week as well as it bends around the region, favoring an increase in soil moisture for immature long-season crops and for the newly planted safrinha corn. A small area around Mato Grosso do Sul is in between the favorable areas of rainfall and could be too dry for the new crop.

ACTIVE PERIOD FOR ARGENTINA

A front brought some heavy rain to northern Argentina over the weekend, while it was more isolated over southern areas. Northern areas will continue to see showers with the front stuck in the area through Thursday. Another front will move in southern areas on Wednesday with more waves of showers moving northward through the weekend. The rainfall should be favorable for most areas but is also scattered enough that it may miss some key areas across the south that could use some more rain. The overall pattern is favorable for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans, however.

WHEAT AWAKENING IN GOOD CONDITION IN BLACK SEA

Drier conditions are likely in the Black Sea region most of this week, but a front coming down from the north and a system moving through the Mediterranean may produce some needed precipitation, including snowfall in the region Sunday into Tuesday. That may include some cold air, but models are keeping anything intense farther north and east. Any drop in temperatures should not have a dramatic effect on wheat which is still awakening from dormancy for the most part.

MORE RAIN FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EUROPE

The main low-pressure system continues to reload and bring more systems into western Europe into the Mediterranean next week. A stronger cold front will move south across eastern areas later this week with a threat of cold air for next week if a system moving eastward through the continent phases up with it. That could pose a threat to some winter wheat that has awakened early, but likely wouldn't last long or be too intense.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com.

(c) Copyright 2024 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.