Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A couple of systems moving through the U.S., including the drier southwestern Plains, and widespread showers in South America are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

WARM AND WET FOR MIDWEST

Very warm temperatures moved into the Midwest over the weekend along with stronger winds, breaking records in some areas. That also came with a storm system that brought a cold front into western areas on Sunday that will slowly move across the region through Tuesday. Though temperatures will decrease, they will still be above normal. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will fill in across the region, helping to increase soil moisture a bit for much of the Ohio Valley. Another storm system will move through late this week and weekend with more widespread precipitation and chances for snow in some areas. Temperatures still remain warm going into mid-March and may coax some early planting across the south in the next couple of weeks.

SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Strong winds kicked up over the weekend in the Central and Southern Plains as a system moved across the north and dragged a cold front into the region. Wildfire risks remain elevated for Monday. Luckily, a system is expected to move through Wednesday night through Friday with widespread showers. That may include some pockets of snow, mostly in the High Plains, but will help add to soil moisture for helping to fight any outstanding wildfires. It will also help replace soil moisture losses due to higher winds and temperatures that have recently sapped it from the topsoil, benefiting wheat.

NORTHERN PLAINS COOLER THIS WEEK

A larger storm moved into the Northern Plains over the weekend and spread showers through most areas, including some heavy snow across the north. Some cooler air will remain around the next couple of days before rising again by this weekend. More showers will be possible this week in the cooler air, mostly as some light snow.

MORE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH DELTA

It was dry in the Delta over the weekend with increasing temperatures. Above-normal temperatures continue through mid-March while a couple of systems bring more rainfall through the region this week. The combination of good soil moisture and warm temperatures may coax some early planting in the region over the next couple of weeks.

OVERALL GOOD SHOWERS IN BRAZIL

Wet season showers in central Brazil were widely scattered over the weekend and are forecast to continue that way through this week. A front moving into southern Brazil will be active for that region for much of this week as well as it bends around the region, favoring an increase in soil moisture for immature long-season crops and for the newly planted safrinha corn. A small area around Mato Grosso do Sul is in between the favorable areas of rainfall and could be too dry for the new crop.

ACTIVE PERIOD FOR ARGENTINA

A front brought some heavy rain to northern Argentina over the weekend, while it was much more manageable over southern areas. Northern areas will continue to see showers with the front stuck in the area through Thursday. Another front will move in southern areas on Wednesday with more waves of showers moving northward through the weekend. The rainfall should be favorable for most areas but is also scattered enough to miss some key areas across the south that could use some more rain. The overall pattern is favorable for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans, however.

WHEAT AWAKENING IN GOOD CONDITION IN BLACK SEA

The winter wheat areas of the Black Sea region were dry and cooler over the weekend, though not dangerously cold to produce a risk of frost damage. Drier conditions are likely most of this week but a front coming down from the north and a system moving through the Mediterranean may produce some needed precipitation, including snowfall in the region Sunday into Tuesday. That may be followed by colder air as well. Still, the cold should not dramatically affect wheat that is still awakening from dormancy in good condition for the most part.

MORE RAIN FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EUROPE

A system brought widespread rainfall to the western half of Europe over the weekend with another low escaping into the Mediterranean on Sunday that will continue showers in that region early this week. The main low continues to reload and bring more systems into Western Europe this week. A stronger cold front will push south across eastern areas this weekend with a threat of cold air for next week if a system moving eastward through the continent phases up with it. That could pose a threat to some winter wheat that has awakened early, but likely wouldn't last long.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com.

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