Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Warm temperatures and drier conditions will gradually return across most of the Central U.S. this weekend before the pattern turns more active next week. Showers will become more widespread across central Brazil this weekend with more showers on the way for Argentina and southern Brazil as well. These are the weather factors driving the markets for Friday.

RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND

Temperatures started rebounding across the west on Thursday, with warmer temperatures returning to the east on Friday, pushing record highs again over the weekend. Another storm system is forecast to move through the region Sunday and Monday with similar effects to the storm during the middle of this week. Widespread showers, some snow, strong winds, and severe weather will all be possible. Another round of widespread precipitation is possible by the end of next week or next weekend as another system arrives from the West.

RISK FOR WILDFIRES RETURNING THIS WEEKEND IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures started warming up on Thursday across the north and this will expand across the south on Friday, with the region pushing high temperature records in some places again this weekend. Showers across Texas on Thursday also helped the spread of wildfires. Another system will move into the area Sunday and Monday which could produce strong winds; however, precipitation may be limited. Strong winds have caused expanded wildfires in the region earlier this week and that could be replicated over the weekend.

RAIN AND SNOW RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND

Temperatures quickly rebounded on Thursday after the recent, brief cold snap. Another strong system will move through over the weekend with potential for more snow and strong winds as well as another drop in temperatures. The forecast for the first half of next week is quieter and cooler, but we could see another storm system late in the week.

SOUTHERN DELTA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS AHEAD OF PLANTING

A disturbance is providing some rain and snow showers to the region on Friday with much of the snow remaining confined to Missouri. Another system will move through with more showers early next week, which could be heavier, especially across the south. By late next week, another round of potentially heavy rain could move into the region from the Plains. Soil moisture continues to be much improved ahead of spring planting.

SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL THIS WEEKEND

Wet season showers in central Brazil will fill back in this weekend into early next week after being isolated earlier in the week. Southern areas will see another round of showers by late this weekend into early next week as a front from Argentina drifts north. Showers are forecast to be more sporadic and shifting next week, but fairly widespread, which should help with the long-season crops in the south and the safrinha corn in the central. However, showers will disrupt harvest progression for soybeans.

SCATTERED SHOWERS RETURN ACROSS ARGENTINA ON SATURDAY

A smaller disturbance brought limited showers to southern and central Argentina on Thursday, but a wave of widespread showers will move through with a front early this weekend. Throughout next week, central and southern areas will see isolated showers, but likely nothing heavy or widespread. Showers are not perfect, but as long as they keep coming with enough frequency, crop conditions should remain stable with overall good ratings. Some spots may be missed, however, and see conditions fall.

WHEAT COMING OUT OF DORMANCY IN BLACK SEA REGION

Conditions over the winter have been mostly favorable with frequent enough precipitation events to leave most areas with good soil moisture as wheat begins to awaken from dormancy early due to warmer temperatures. Drier conditions are expected into early next week. A system may develop in the middle of next week with scattered showers. Some colder air may follow that system, which will be watched for anything significant. Snow cover is not in place over much of the region, leaving it vulnerable to any shots of cold air.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com.

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