Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Strong shifts in temperatures and systems moving through the U.S., scattered showers in southern Brazil, and rain missing parts of Argentina and central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

ROLLERCOASTER RIDE OF TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEST

A strong cold front moved through the Midwest on Tuesday with widespread showers and thunderstorms, including some severe weather. Strong winds continue Wednesday with a quick burst of cold air. That will only last about 36 hours before temperatures start rebounding in the west on Thursday, and the east on Friday, pushing record highs again over the weekend. Another storm system is forecast to move through the region on Sunday and Monday with similar effects to the storm this week. Widespread showers, some snow, strong winds, and severe weather will all be possible.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A strong cold front pushed through the Central and Southern Plains on Tuesday with limited showers but a sharp drop in temperatures. Though cold on Wednesday, temperatures will rebound across the north on Thursday and the south on Friday, with the region pushing high-temperature records in some places again this weekend. A small system will move across the south with some showers on Thursday with another strong storm possible Sunday and Monday. This system may -- or may not -- have much precipitation with it but should produce strong winds and another drop in temperatures. Strong winds have caused expanded wildfires in the region and that could be replicated over the weekend.

TEMPERATURE CHANGES FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A strong cold front pushed through the Northern Plains on Tuesday, producing heavy snow in North Dakota and light snow elsewhere. A massive drop in temperatures will keep the region cold on Wednesday but will quickly rebound to be above normal again on Thursday. Another strong system will move through over the weekend with the potential for more snow and strong winds as well as another drop in temperatures. The forecast for next week is quieter and milder but we could see another storm system late in the week.

GOOD SOIL MOISTURE IN THE DELTA

A cold front will move through the Delta with some isolated showers on Wednesday and more showers will follow behind it on Thursday night to Friday. Another system will move through with more showers early next week, which could be heavier. Soil moisture continues to be much improved ahead of spring planting.

MIXED SHOWERS IN BRAZIL

Wet season showers in central Brazil will be isolated for the rest of this week, but they will fill back in this weekend. Southern areas are seeing waves of showers through Thursday as a front waffles around the region. Showers are forecast to be more sporadic and shifting next week, but fairly widespread, which should help with the long-season crops in the south and the safrinha corn in the central.

SLIGHTLY ACTIVE PERIOD FOR ARGENTINA

Scattered showers continue to fall across northern Argentina with a front waffling around Wednesday. Some heavy rain has fallen there recently. Smaller disturbances are bringing limited showers to southern Argentina, but a wave of widespread showers will move through with a front this weekend. Another system may move through later next week as well. Showers are not perfect, but as long as they keep coming with enough frequency, crop conditions should remain stable with overall good ratings. Some spots may be missed, however, and see conditions fall.

WINTER WHEAT WAKING TO GOOD CONDITIONS IN BLACK SEA

Conditions over the winter have been mostly favorable in the Black Sea region with frequent enough precipitation events to leave most areas with good soil moisture as wheat begins to awaken from dormancy early due to warmer temperatures. Drier conditions are expected early next week. A system may develop in the middle of next week with scattered showers. Some colder air may follow that system, which will be watched for anything significant. Snow cover is not in place over much of the region, leaving it vulnerable to any shots of cold air.

ACTIVE PATTERN IN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EUROPE

A large low-pressure center has moved into the Mediterranean and will continue showers there for the next couple of days. More systems will move through western Europe into the Mediterranean later this week and next week, which would be beneficial for Spain and Italy, but be too wet in France and the UK. Temperatures continue to be much warmer than normal across the eastern half of the continent, promoting early awakening from dormancy and growth.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com.

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