Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Waffling temperatures and strong systems moving through the U.S., scattered showers in southern Brazil and rain missing parts of Argentina and central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

ROLLERCOASTER RIDE OF TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEST

Extreme warmth will be pushed out of the Midwest by a very strong cold front on Tuesday and Wednesday. Widespread showers, including some light snow, will move through. Thunderstorms across the east could be severe on Tuesday. Winds will be strong and temperatures will drop significantly behind the front. That will only last about a day or so before temperatures pop right back up well above normal again for Thursday or Friday with records tested again over the weekend. Another big storm system is forecast to move through early next week as well and could have similar impacts.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A strong cold front will push through the Central and Southern Plains on Tuesday with limited showers, but strong winds and a quick burst of cold air. That won't last long as temperatures soar back above normal again on Thursday. A secondary piece to the storm should bring some showers across the south on Thursday. Warm temperatures again could be significant going through the weekend but another strong system will move through Sunday and Monday. That system will likely bring areas of heavier precipitation, including the potential for heavy snow across the north, strong wind and another drop in temperatures, and they may settle into a more seasonable range.

BRIEF COLD AND SNOW IN NORTHERN PLAINS

A much stronger system and cold front is pushing through the Northern Plains on Tuesday. A band of moderate-to-heavy snow is falling across North Dakota. Temperatures are falling dramatically behind this front but will only last about two days before they pop back above normal by Thursday. The active weather pattern continues this weekend with another big storm system moving through with a mix of rain and snow and another drop in temperatures.

GOOD SOIL MOISTURE IN THE DELTA

A cold front will move through the Delta with some isolated showers on Wednesday and more showers will follow behind it on Thursday night into Friday. Another system will move through with more showers early next week. Soil moisture continues to be much improved ahead of spring planting.

MIXED SHOWERS IN BRAZIL

Wet season showers in central Brazil will be isolated for the rest of this week but fill back in this weekend. Southern areas are seeing waves of showers through Thursday as a front waffles around the region. Showers are forecast to be more sporadic and shifting next week, but fairly widespread, which should help with the long-season crops in the south and the safrinha corn in the central.

SLIGHTLY ACTIVE PERIOD FOR ARGENTINA

Scattered showers continue to fall across northern Argentina with a front waffling around through Wednesday. Smaller disturbances will move through southern Argentina this week with more muted shower potential with a better shot of widespread showers with a front passing through this weekend. Showers are not perfect, but as long as they keep coming with enough frequency, crop conditions should remain stable in the overall good ratings currently found in the country. Some spots may be missed, however.

WINTER WHEAT WAKING TO GOOD CONDITIONS IN BLACK SEA

Conditions over the winter have been mostly favorable in the Black Sea region with frequent enough precipitation events to leave most areas with good soil moisture as wheat begins to awaken from dormancy early due to warmer temperatures. Drier conditions are expected next week and there may be some colder air moving through next week that will need to be monitored.

ACTIVE IN EUROPE

A large low-pressure center will move into the Mediterranean and produce showers throughout the week. More systems will try to follow a similar path later this week and next, which would be beneficial for Spain and Italy, but be too wet in France and the UK. Temperatures continue to be much warmer than normal across the eastern half of Europe, promoting early awakening from dormancy and growth.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com.

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