Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- One last burst of arctic air across the U.S. through the weekend, but a flip to warm and wet next week; continued good weather in most of Brazil; and drier conditions in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

BRIEF ARCTIC CHILL, THEN WET FOR MIDWEST

A clipper is moving through eastern areas of the Midwest with a band of light to moderate snow on Friday, and arctic air is pouring into the region behind it. The cold will not last all that long as warm air moves back in by Monday. Some areas have been exposed to the arctic cold and thus susceptible to winterkill on winter wheat. The warmer air will also bring in several rounds of precipitation next week. The front end of it should be cold enough for some areas of freezing rain and snow Monday into Tuesday, which could be significant.

QUICK BURST OF COLD, THEN RAINY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Arctic cold is pouring into the Central and Southern Plains again after a clipper went through northern areas Thursday. Much of the winter wheat crop is covered by recent snow, but Oklahoma and Texas have been uncovered and are more susceptible to winterkill. Warmer air will start to move in on Sunday and produce areas of showers for next week, primarily in the southeast. That should be mostly rain and will help melt the snowpack as well as provide more moisture for dormant wheat.

WARMTH COMING FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A clipper brought a band of snow to the Northern Plains Thursday, but also the last burst of arctic air as well. The cold will not last long as mild air moves back in starting Sunday and sticks around through the end of the month. Harsh cold has had a detrimental effect on livestock and for those who care for them.

DELTA WILL SEE MORE RAIN

Any remaining snow in the Delta may protect winter wheat from arctic temperatures that are moving in Friday through the weekend. Exposed areas are at risk of winterkill. Mild temperatures move back in next week and will bring several rounds of rain, melting the snow. Recent heavy storms of the last couple of weeks have significantly boosted water levels on the Mississippi River, which should increase transportation for at least a little while.

GOOD RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

Showers in central Brazil have had low coverage this week. Heavier rain across the south has been favorable for some of the drier areas, including Sao Paulo and Parana. A slow-moving front continues to bring widespread showers to southern areas Friday and will boost showers for central areas this weekend that will continue through next week. The drier stretch in central Brazil is not overly concerning for filling soybeans with the heavier rain that will follow, but soil moisture is not adequate for safrinha corn and more consistent showers will be important for planting, which should start up shortly. Far southern areas will be drier through next week at least, if not longer, which will be a concern for some areas that have missed out on the beneficial rain of the last week.

DRYNESS CONCERNS FOR ARGENTINA

Recent precipitation in Argentina has been heavy, bringing good soil moisture to most of the country. Drier conditions are expected for the next two weeks, however. Corn and soybean conditions are likely to fall toward the end of the month.

SOUTHERN EUROPEAN WHEAT IN MOSTLY GOOD CONDITION

A large storm continues across the Mediterranean through Saturday with more showers for wheat areas. Good precipitation over southern Europe has been favorable for vegetative wheat in Spain and Italy, but the storm track moves north next week and southern areas should turn drier.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com.

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