USDA Cattle Reports Preview

OMAHA (DTN) -- Friday is going to be a big day for the cattle complex. With both a monthly Cattle on Feed report and the midyear Cattle Inventory report set to be released Friday afternoon, traders will have plenty of new data to sort through over the weekend.

However, neither of the reports is expected to unveil any sort of surprise. Analysts' estimates of total on-feed numbers and the number of cattle placed in June are in a tight range. And the Cattle Inventory report should only debut two major points: that the U.S. cow herd is dramatically smaller than in years past and that the 2023 calf is smaller too. Just from weekly beef cow slaughter data, we know that as of July 1, the market has processed 1,744,578 head of beef cows this year. Compared to 2022, this year's beef cow slaughter is down 11%. However, compared to 2021, 2023's beef cow slaughter is up 1% and, compared to the market's five-year average, 2023's beef cow slaughter is trending up 3%.

The big question that next week's market will have to answer is this: Will these reports carry enough merit to push prices even higher? Corn prices have been gaining momentum this week, and the feeder cattle complex has technically been under some pressure, although demand remains incredible throughout the countryside. Meanwhile, the live cattle complex continues to climb to new highs nearly daily as traders see the power of tight supplies amid strong consumer demand.

USDA will release its July 1 Cattle on Feed and biannual Cattle Inventory reports at 2 p.m. CDT on Friday.

	USDA Actual	Average Estimate	Range
On Feed July 1		97.6%	97.1-98.1%
Placed in June		97.8%	96.0-100.0%
Marketed in June		95.3%	94.9-96.0%

ShayLe Stewart can be reached at ShayLe.Stewart@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.